Journal of Industrial Convergence (산업융합연구)

DAEHAN Society of Industrial Management (대한산업경영학회)
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Statistical Prediction of Used Tablet PC Transaction Price among Consumers

소비자 사이의 중고 태블릿PC 거래 가격의 통계적 예측

  • Younghee, Go (Dept. of Applied Statistics, Kyonggi University) ;
  • Sohyung, Kim (Dept. of Trade, Kyonggi University) ;
  • Yujin, Chung (Dept. of Applied Statistics, Kyonggi University)
  • 고영희 (경기대학교 응용통계학과) ;
  • 김소형 (경기대학교 무역학과) ;
  • 정유진 (경기대학교 응용통계학과)
  • Received : 2022.10.25
  • Accepted : 2022.12.20
  • Published : 2022.12.28
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Abstract

This study aims to develop a predictive model to suggest a used sales price to sellers and buyers when trading used tablet PCs. For model development, we analyzed the real used tablet PC transaction data and additionally collected detailed product information. We developed several predictive models and selected the best predictive model among them. Specifically, we considered a multiple linear regression model using the used sales price as a dependent variable and other variables in the integrated data as independent variables, a multiple linear regression model including interactions, and the models from stepwise variable selection in each model. The model with the best predictive performance was finally selected through cross-validation. Through this study, we can predict the sales price of used tablet PCs and suggest appropriate used sales prices to sellers and buyers.

본 연구에서는 태블릿PC 중고제품의 거래 시, 판매자와 구매자 모두에게 판매가격을 제시할 수 있는 예측모형을 개발하는 것을 목표로 한다. 모형 개발을 위하여 실제 태블릿PC 중고거래 데이터와 제품에 대한 상세 정보를 추가 수집한 데이터를 사용하였다. 데이터 분석을 통하여 여러 가지 예측모형을 개발하였으며, 이 중 태블릿PC 중고가격 예측 성능이 가장 뛰어난 모형을 최종 예측모형으로 선택하였다. 구체적으로 중고 태블릿의 판매가격을 종속변수로 하고, 통합된 데이터에서 판매가격과 연관성이 있는 변수들을 독립변수로 한 다중선형회귀모형, 교호작용을 포함한 다중선형회귀모형, 그리고 각 모형에서 단계적 변수 선택법을 통해 얻은 모형들을 고려하였다. 이들 모형 중 교차타당성을 통해 최종적으로 예측 성능이 가장 뛰어난 모형을 태블릿PC 중고가격을 예측하는 모형으로 선택하였다. 본 연구를 통하여 중고제품 판매가격을 예측하고 판매자와 구매자에게 적절한 중고 거래 가격을 제시해 볼 수 있을 것이다.

Keywords

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