한국환경복원기술학회지 (Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology)

  • 제25권6호
  • /
  • Pages.1-11
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  • 2022
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  • 1229-3032(pISSN)
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  • 2733-5011(eISSN)
한국환경복원기술학회 (The Korea Society of Environmental Restoration Technology)
권호 표지
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KBDI 가뭄지수를 이용한 SSP 기후변화 시나리오하의 충청지역 백두대간 산불 잠재력 전망

Projecting forest fire potential in the Baekdudaegan of the Chungcheong region under the SSP scenario climate change using KBDI Drought Index

  • 최재용 (충남대학교 산림환경자원학과) ;
  • 김수진 (국립산림과학원 산림생태연구과 ) ;
  • 정휘철 (한국환경연구원 국가기후위기적응센터) ;
  • 김성열 (엔필드(주) ) ;
  • 문건수 (충남대학교 농업생명과학대학 산림환경자원학과 )
  • Choi, Jaeyong (Dept. of Environment & Forest Resources, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Kim, Su-Jin (Division of Forest Ecology, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Jung, Huicheul (Korea Adaptation Center for Climate Change, Korea Environment Institute) ;
  • Kim, Sung-Yeol (Enfield Co.) ;
  • Moon, Geon-Soo (Department of Environment & Forest Resources, Chungnam National University)
  • 투고 : 2022.10.12
  • 심사 : 2022.11.22
  • 발행 : 2022.12.30
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초록

Recently, climate change has been regarded as a major cause of large-scale forest fires worldwide, and there is concern that more frequent and severe forest fires will occur due to the level of greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, the daily Keetch and Byram Drought Index (KBDI) of the Baekdudaegan in Chungcheong region including Sobaeksan, Songnisan, and Woraksan National Parks were calculated to assess effect of climate change on the forest fire potential- severity of annual maximum KBDI and frequency of high KBDI days. The present (2000~2019) and future KBDI(2021~2040, 2041~2060, 2081~2090) were calculated based on the meteorological observation and the ensemble regional climate model of the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios with a spatial resolution of 1-km provided by Korea Meteorological Administration(KMA). Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, 6.5℃ increase and 14% precipitation increase are expected at the end of the 21st century. The severity of maximum daily KBDI increases by 48% (+50mm), and the frequency of high KBDI days (> 100 KBDI) increases more than 100 days, which means the high potential for serious forest fires. The analysis results showed that Songnisan National Park has the highest potential for forest fire risk and will continue to be high in intensity and frequency in the future. It is expected that the forest vulnerability of the Baekdudaegan in the Chungcheong region will greatly increase and the difficulty in preventing and suppressing forest fires will increase as the abundance of combustible materials increases along with climate changes.

키워드

과제정보

본 연구는 국립산림과학원 일반연구과제 '백두대간과 정맥의 산림공간 관리체계화 및 권역별 보전·복원체계 개발'의 지원에 의하여 수행되었음.

참고문헌

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