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An Analysis of the Determinants of the Bolsonaro Administration's Pro-U.S. and Anti-China Diplomacy: Focusing on Political Leader's Personal Characteristics

브라질 보우소나루 정부의 친미·반중 외교노선 결정요인 분석: 정치지도자의 개인적 특성을 중심으로

  • 정호윤 (부경대학교 글로벌지역학연구소)
  • Received : 2021.10.25
  • Accepted : 2021.12.10
  • Published : 2021.12.28
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Abstract

With the inauguration of the Bolsonaro administration in 2019, Brazil experienced a noticeable transformation in its policy lines at home and abroad. Limiting this change to diplomacy, it can be pointed out that pro-U.S. and anti-China diplomacy, which is clearly distinguished from the previous regimes, has begun in earnest. Nevertheless, the existing literature on this topic is limited, and it is mainly poetic reporting through the media. This paper aims to derive the main determinant of Bolsonaru's pro-U.S. and anti-China diplomatic lines by postulating the individual level of the political leader as a key variable. This study argues that his personal experience and beliefs and world views formed by his life history, and Bolsonaro's political calculation that would strengthen his domestic political support through linking between his domestic politics and diplomatic lines, ultimately influenced the dependent variable. This study is thought to be meaningful in that it enhanced the theoretical implications of not only the theory of foreign policy determinants but also the understanding of Brazil's foreign policy by explaining the factors of Brazil's pro-U.S. and anti-China diplomacy through focusing on an individual level.

2019년 보우소나루 정부가 출범하면서 브라질은 국내·대외적으로 눈에 띄는 정책노선의 변화를 경험하였다. 이러한 변화를 외교분야로 한정해서 살펴보면 보우소나루 정부 들어 기존 정권의 전통중립외교와 명확히 구분되는 친미·반중 외교행보가 본격화되었다는 점을 지적할 수 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고 보우소나루의 친미·반중 외교노선에 대한 선행연구는 제한적이며, 주로 기성언론을 통한 시론적 보도 정도에 그치고 있는 실정이다. 본 논문은 이러한 문제의식을 기반으로 보우소나루의 친미·반중 외교노선의 결정요인을 도출하는 것을 주요 연구목적으로 하였으며, 특히 정치지도자(보우소나루)의 개인적 수준을 주요 변수로 상정하여 파악하였다. 본 연구는 보우소나루의 생애사를 통해 축적된 개인적 경험과 이러한 요소들에 의해 형성된 그의 이념, 신념 및 세계관, 그리고 자신의 국내적 정치와 외교노선 간의 연계를 통해 자신의 국내정치적 지지기반을 공고히 하는 일종의 정치적 계산이 궁극적으로 보우소나루 정부의 친미·반중외교에 영향을 끼쳤음을 주장하였다. 본 연구는 정치지도자(대통령) 수준에 대한 개인적 특성 분석을 통해 브라질의 친미·반중외교의 요인을 설명함으로써 외교정책결정요인 이론뿐만 아니라 브라질의 외교정책을 이해하는 데 개인적 수준의 분석이 가지는 이론적 함의를 제고했다는 점에서 의의가 있다고 사료된다.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

이 논문은 2020년 대한민국 교육부와 한국연구재단의 지원을 받아 수행된 연구임 (NRF-2020S1A5C2A02093112).

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