Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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The performance evaluation of dam management by using Granger causal analysis

그랜저 인과분석을 통한 댐관리 성과평가

  • Cho, Sung-Min (Department of Public Administration, Sejong University) ;
  • Yoo, Myoung-Kwan (Research Institute for Government, Sejong University) ;
  • Lee, Deokro (Department of Public Administration, Sejong University)
  • 조성민 (세종대학교 행정학과) ;
  • 유명관 (세종대학교 국정관리연구소) ;
  • 이덕로 (세종대학교 행정학과)
  • Received : 2020.10.15
  • Accepted : 2021.01.12
  • Published : 2021.02.28
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Abstract

This paper attempted to find implications for water resource management and water quality improvement by analyzing the causal relationship among discharge, water temperature and pollution index, which were expected to have a great effect on water quality with the rise of water temperature and precipitation change as the warming effect in recent years. For this purpose, the unit root test, cointegration test, and Granger causal test were carried out for 10 multi-purpose dams in Korean major water systems using time series data on discharge, water temperature, BOD, COD and DO. It was analyzed that the fluctuation of water temperature affected the pollution index more than the fluctuation of discharge volume. Also, Hapcheon dam and Chungju dam were the best water quality management dams based on the high causal relationship between water quality and discharge. The second rank was Daecheong dam. The third-ranking group were Yongdam and Andong dam, whose causal relationships between water quality and discharge were low. The last group were the remaining five dams.

본 논문은 근래 급속하게 진행되는 온난화가 수온의 상승과 수량 변동을 수반하여 수질에도 큰 영향을 줄 것으로 전망됨에 따라 방류량 및 수온과 오염도 지수간의 인과관계 분석을 통해 효율적인 수자원 관리 및 수질 개선을 위한 시사점을 도출하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 우리나라 주요 수계의 10개 다목적댐을 대상으로 방류량 및 수온, BOD, COD, DO 등 오염도 지수에 대해 시계열 자료를 활용하여 단위근 검정 및 공적분 검정, 그랜저 인과분석을 실시하여 방류량 보다는 수온이 오염도 지수와 더 많은 인과관계가 있어 수온의 변동이 방류량의 변동보다 오염지수에 더 영향을 미치는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한, 수질과 방류량의 인과관계가 높아 이에 따른 댐의 수량 및 수질관리가 가장 우수한 댐은 합천댐과 충주댐이었으며, 2순위 대청댐이었다. 다음으로 수질과 방류량의 인과관계가 낮은 3순위 그룹의 용담 및 안동댐, 4순위 그룹은 나머지 5개 댐으로 밝혀졌다.

Keywords

References

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