International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering

  • 제13권1호
  • /
  • Pages.292-305
  • /
  • 2021
  • /
  • 2092-6782(pISSN)
  • /
  • 2092-6790(eISSN)
대한조선학회 (The Society of Naval Architects of Korea)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Application of Monte Carlo simulations to uncertainty assessment of ship powering prediction by the 1978 ITTC method

  • Seo, Jeonghwa (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Chungnam National University) ;
  • Park, Jongyeol (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Go, Seok Cheon (Hyundai Maritime Research Institute, Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., Ltd.) ;
  • Rhee, Shin Hyung (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Yoo, Jaehoon (Department of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, Mokpo National University)
  • 투고 : 2020.06.20
  • 심사 : 2021.03.31
  • 발행 : 2021.11.30
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

The present study concerns uncertainty assessment of powering prediction from towing tank model tests, suggested by the International Towing Tank Conference (ITTC). The systematic uncertainty of towing tank tests was estimated by allowance of test setup and measurement accuracy of ITTC. The random uncertainty was varied from 0 to 8% of the measurement. Randomly generated inputs of test conditions and measurement data sets under systematic and random uncertainty are used to statistically analyze resistance and propulsive performance parameters at the full scale. The error propagation through an extrapolation procedure is investigated in terms of the sensitivity and coefficient of determination. By the uncertainty assessment, it is found that the uncertainty of resultant powering prediction was smaller than the test uncertainty.

키워드

과제정보

This research was supported by the research fund of Chungnam National University.

참고문헌

  1. Aldous, L., Smith, T., Bucknall, R., Thompson, P., 2015. Uncertainty analysis in ship performance monitoring. Ocean. Eng. 110, 29-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.05.043
  2. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2005. Test uncertainty. Performance Test Codes 19.1-2005. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers, New York, NY.
  3. Forgach, K.M., 2002. Measurement Uncertainty Analysis of Ship Model Resistance and Self Propulsion tests. NSWCCD-50-TR-2002/064. David Taylor Model Basin, West Bethesda, MD.
  4. Gui, L., Longo, J., Stern, F., 2001a. Towing tank PIV measurement system, data and uncertainty assessment for DTMB model 5512. Exp. Fluid 31, 336-346. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003480100293
  5. Gui, L., Longo, J., Metcalf, B., Shao, J., Stern, F., 2001b. Forces, moment, and wave pattern for surface combatant in regular head waves part 1. Measurement systems and uncertainty assessment. Exp. Fluid 31, 674-680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003480100321
  6. Gui, L., Longo, B., Metcalf, B., Shao, J., Stern, F., 2002. Forces, moment and wave pattern for surface combatant in regular head waves part 2. Measurement results and discussions. Exp. Fluid 32, 27-36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s003480200003
  7. Han, B.W., Seo, J., Lee, S.J., Seol, D.M., Rhee, S.H., 2018. Uncertainty assessment for a towed underwater stereo PIV system by uniform flow measurement. Int. J. Nav. Architect. Ocean Eng. 10, 596-608. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2017.11.005
  8. Insel, M., 2008. Uncertainty in the analysis of speed and powering trials. Ocean. Eng. 35, 1183-1193. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2008.04.009
  9. International Towing Tank Conference, 2011. Fresh water and seawater properties, 5-02-01-03. In: ITTC - Recommended Procedures and Guidelines, vol. 7. International Towing Tank Conference, Zurich, Switzerland.
  10. International Towing Tank Conference, 2014a. General guidelines for uncertainty analysis in resistance tests. ITTC - R. P. & G. 7.5-02-02-0. In: International Towing Tank Conference, Zurich, Switzerland.
  11. International Towing Tank Conference, 2014b. Open Water test. ITTC - Recommended Procedures and Guidelines 7.5-02-03-02.1. International Towing Tank Conference, Zurich, Switzerland.
  12. International Towing Tank Conference, 2017a. 1978 ITTC performance prediction method. ITTC - Recommended Procedures and Guidelines 7.5-02-03-01.4. In: International Towing Tank Conference, Zurich, Switzerland..
  13. International Towing Tank Conference, 2017b. Uncertainty analysis, example for propulsion test, 7.5-02-03-01.2 ITTC - Recommended Procedures and Guidelines. International Towing Tank Conference, Zurich, Switzerland.
  14. International Towing Tank Conference, 2017c. Uncertainty analysis, example for propulsion test. ITTC - R. P. & G. 7.5-02-03-01.2. In: International Towing Tank Conference, Zurich, Switzerland.
  15. International Towing Tank Conference, 2017d. Propeller model accuracy. In: ITTC - Recommended Procedures and Guidelines 7.5-01-02-02. International Towing Tank Conference, Zurich, Switzerland.
  16. Kamal, I.M., Binns, J., Bose, N., Thomas, G., 2013. Reliability assessment of ship powering performance extrapolations using Monte Carlo methods. In: Proceedings of the Third International Symposium on Marine Propulsors. Launceston, Australia, May 2013.
  17. Kume, K., Hasegawa, J., Tsukada, Y., Fujisawa, J., Fukasawa, R., Hinatsu, M., 2006. Measurements of hydrodynamic forces, surface pressure, and wake for obliquely towed tanker model and uncertainty analysis for CFD validation. J. Mar. Sci. Technol. 11, 65-75. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-005-0209-y
  18. Longo, J., Stern, F., 2005. Uncertainty assessment for towing tank tests with example for surface combatant DTMB model 5415. J. Ship Res. 49 (1), 55-68. https://doi.org/10.5957/jsr.2005.49.1.55
  19. Min, K., Kang, S., 2010. Study on the form factor and full-scale ship resistance prediction method. J. Mar. Sci. Technol. 15 (2), 108-118. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-009-0077-y
  20. Molloy, S., 2006. Uncertainty Analysis of Ship Powering Prediction Methods Using Monte Carlo Simulation. Doctoral thesis. Memorial University of Newfoundland, St. John's, Canada.
  21. Nikolov, M.C., Judge, C.Q., 2017. Uncertainty analysis for calm water tow tank measurements. J. Ship Res. 61 (4), 177-197. https://doi.org/10.5957/JOSR.160072
  22. Park, D., Lee, J., Kim, Y., 2015. Uncertainty analysis for added resistance experiment ofKVLCC2 ship. Ocean. Eng. 95, 143-156. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2014.12.007
  23. Ueno, M., Yoshimura, Y., Tsukada, Y., Miyazaki, H., 2009. Circular motion tests and uncertainty analysis for ship maneuverability. J. Mar. Sci. Technol. 14, 469-484. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00773-009-0065-2
  24. Yoon, H., Simonsen, C.D., Benedetti, L., Longo, J., Toda, Y., Stern, F., 2015a. Benchmark CFD validation data for surface combatant 5415 in PMM maneuvers - part 1: force/moment/motion measurements. Ocean. Eng. 109, 75-734.
  25. Yoon, H., Longo, J., Toda, Y., Stern, F., 2015b. Benchmark CFD validation data for surface combatant 5415 in PMM maneuvers - part 2: phase-averaged stereoscopic PIV flow field measurements. Ocean. Eng. 109, 735-750. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2015.09.046