The Journal of the Korean dental association (대한치과의사협회지)

The Korean Dental Association (대한치과의사협회)
권호 표지

Estimation and adequacy of dentist supply through the dental care productivity

생산성을 고려한 치과의사의 공급 추계와 적정성

  • Son, Se-Ho (Seoul National University, Department of Economics) ;
  • Cho, Hyun-Jae (Seoul National University School of Dentistry, Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry) ;
  • Kim, Hyun-Duck (Seoul National University School of Dentistry, Department of Preventive and Social Dentistry)
  • 손세호 (서울대학교 경제학부 학사과정) ;
  • 조현재 (서울대학교 치의학대학원 예방 및 사회치학교실) ;
  • 김현덕 (서울대학교 치의학대학원 예방 및 사회치학교실)
  • Received : 2019.08.22
  • Accepted : 2019.10.14
  • Published : 2020.01.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Running title: Adequacy of dentist supply Objectives: The proper provision of dentists is very important for delivering the dental care that people need. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the adequacy of dentist supply and to predict the proper supply of dentists in Korea for the next 10 years. Methods and materials: Using the data from 2004 to 2017 in the Statictics Korea, the dental needs were measured as days of admission and the annual total dental care hours in 2020, 2023, 2026 and 2030 were predticted using regression analysis. The dental care productivity (average in-office hours) of dentists was analyzed using regression analysis including age, gender, education level and region as a confounder. The annual care hours were predicted according to seven scenarios based on the percentage of women among dentists, post-dentist education levels, the percentage of dentists in the metropolitan area, aging and retirement age. Results: The needed dentist based on the data in the Statictics Korea will be 27, 288 ~ 27, 311 in 2020, 28,104 ~ 28,1785 in 2023, 28,977 ~ 29,124 in 2026, and 30,174 ~ 30,413 in 2030. On the other hand, the number of dentists in Korea will be 26,945 in 2020, 28,813 in 2023, 30,682 in 2026 and 33,173 in 2030. The adequacy index of dentist supply will be -0.01 in 2020 to +0.10 in 2030. Conclusions: Our data showed that dentists will be adequately supplied in Korea for the next 10 years. Overall, the ratio between dentist versus 1,000 Koreans will be increased from 0.5 in 2019 to 0.7 in 2020, which will meet the mean of OECD countries.

Keywords

Acknowledgement

본 연구는 대한치과의사협회의 일부 연구비 지원으로 수행됨

References

  1. 류시원, 박현애, 최정수. 진료부문 치과의사의 수급 현황 및 전망. 대한치과의사협회지 1991;29(10):801-811
  2. 조현국, 박덕영, 마득상, 정세환. 치의사 수급의 적정성에 대한 연구: 치의사수, 치의직무지수를 중심으로. 대한구강보건학회지 2004;28(3):399-414
  3. 신호성, 홍수연. 치과의사 인력 현황 및 수급 예측. 보건사회연구 2007; 27(1):81-102 https://doi.org/10.15709/HSWR.2007.27.1.81
  4. 데일리메디, "공보치과의사 부족, 배출인력 활용이 관건", 2016.07.17., http://dailymedi.com/detail.php?number=670433
  5. KimYR : Demand and supply of dental manpower by the econometrical model. Graduate school Seoul National University 1982.
  6. 치과의사수급의 적정성에 관한 연구. 대한구강보건학회지 1994;18(1): 339-366
  7. 이위지, 김종배. 서울특별시 치과의사 수급 실태에 관한 조사연구. 대한구강보건학회지 1982;6(1):7-16
  8. 김지현, 김혜영, 이선경, 조영식, 박용덕. 구강보건인력의 현황 및 인력난 조사연구. 대한구강보건학회지 2008;32(4):540-550
  9. 신제원, 김윤진, 김경년, 김각균, 이재일. 해외교육 치과의사의 국내유입에 따른 치과 의료의 질 보장 및 치과의사의 적정수급: 일본과 중국을 중심으로. 대한치과의사협회지 2017;55(1):7-20
  10. 최은영, 조재국, 김진수, 문혁수. 치과의사 인력수급 추계와 적절성 평가. 대한구강보건학회지 1999;23(3):301-315
  11. Cao S, Gentili M, Griffin PM, Griffin SO, Harati P, Johnson B, Serban N, Tomar S. Estimating Demand for and Supply of Pediatric Preventive Dental Care for Children and Identifying Dental Care Shortage Areas, Georgia, 2015. Public Health Rep 2017;132(3):343-349 https://doi.org/10.1177/0033354917699579
  12. Collier R. United States faces dentist shortage. Can Med Assoc J:181(11):253-254
  13. Mertz EA, Grumbach K. Identifying Communities with Low Dentist Supply in California. J Public Health Dent;61(3):172-177 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-7325.2001.tb03386.x
  14. Orlans J, Mertz E, Kevin G. Dental Health Professional Shortage Area Methodology: A Critical Review. UCSF Center to Address Disparities in Children's Oral Health/UCSF Center for California Health Workforce Studies 2002.
  15. Professional Services Close-Up, "Georgia Dental Association Workforce Census: No Dentist Shortage in Georgia", Jan 25 2013.
  16. Voinea-Griffin A, Solomon ES. Dentist shortage: an analysis of dentists, practices, and populations in the underserved areas. J Public Health Dent;76(4):314-319 https://doi.org/10.1111/jphd.12157
  17. Samah AA, Wah LK, Desa MI, Majid HA, Azmi NFM, Salleh N, Bakar AA, Manual A. Decision Support System Using System Dynamics Simulation Modelling for Projection of Dentist Supply. 2014 International Conference on Computer Assisted System in Health:22-25.
  18. Greenberg L, Cultice J. Forecasting the need for physicians in the United States: The Health Resources and Services Administration's physician requirements model. Health Serv Res 1997;.31(6):723-737
  19. Jeffers JR, Bognanno MF, Bartlett JC, On the demand versus need for medical services and the concept of "shortage". Am J Public Health 1971;61(1):46-63 https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.61.1.46
  20. American Dental Association. Characteristics of Private Dental Practices: 2013 Survey of Dental Practice. 2013.