Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회논문집)

The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers (한국농공학회)
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Assessment of Future Water Circulation Rate in Dodang Watershed under Climate Change

기후변화에 따른 도당천 유역 미래 물순환율 평가

  • Kwak, Jihye (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Hwang, Soonho (Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University) ;
  • Jun, Sang Min (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Kim, Seokhyeon (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Seoul National University) ;
  • Choi, Soon Kun (Climate Change and Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences) ;
  • Kang, Moon Seong (Department of Rural Systems Engineering, Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Institute of Green Bio Science and Technology, Seoul National University)
  • Received : 2020.06.09
  • Accepted : 2020.07.28
  • Published : 2020.07.31
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Abstract

The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCR defined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-direct flow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climate change, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRs should also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General Circulation Models) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winter increased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in most GCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. The WCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.

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