Journal of Korea Trade

Korea Trade Research Association (한국무역학회)
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The Impact of COVID-19 and Korea's New Southern Policy on Its Global Value Chain

  • Yoo, Jeong-Ho (Trade, Investment and Innovation Division, United Nations ESCAP) ;
  • Park, Seul-Ki (Department of FTA Policy and Business Consulting, Inha University) ;
  • Cheong, In-Kyo (Department of International Trade, Inha University)
  • Received : 2020.09.11
  • Accepted : 2020.12.15
  • Published : 2020.12.31
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Abstract

Purpose - The Korean government has been promoting the New Southern Policy (NSP) prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, which damage global value chain (GVC). The purpose of this paper is to emphasize that the NSP should be developed to provide tangible support in corporate GVC adjustment, away from diplomatic activities in order to offset GVC losses due to COVID-19 and expand export capabilities. Design/methodology - Two research methodologies are combined for this paper: A computational general equilibrium (CGE) model is used to estimate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and NSP on Korea's exports, and the decomposition methodology (Wang, Wei and Zhu, 2013) to evaluate the stability of GVC. The conventional CGE model was modified to obtain an estimate for decomposition. The research methodology adopted in this study was attempted for the first time, and it can be widely used in future GVC research. Findings - Results found the effects of COVID-19 reduced Korea's total exports by 27% and GVC by more than 30%. In particular, VA in Korea's exports to the NSP region was found to have a huge impact in heavy industries and textiles, and its exports to Vietnam seemed to suffer the largest loss in GVC among ASEAN countries. If the NSP is implemented properly, it appears that it could offset much of the negative impacts of COVID-19, implying the importance of the effectiveness of the NSP. Originality/value - Many papers have assessed the NSP descriptively, and the GVC has been a topic for many publications. However, the impact of COVID-19 on Korea's GVC with the NSP countries has not been quantitatively studied. This paper emphasizes that the NSP should be pursued based on the results of quantitative analysis. In addition, the research methodology of this paper can be used for other GVC research with relevant modifications.

Keywords

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