응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제33권6호
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  • Pages.763-776
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  • 2020
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  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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다층모형을 활용한 양파 구중 추정 연구

A study on the estimation of onion's bulb weight using multi-level model

  • 김준기 (한국농촌경제연구원 농업관측본부 모형연구팀) ;
  • 최성천 (한국농촌경제연구원 농업관측본부 모형연구팀) ;
  • 김재휘 (한국농촌경제연구원 농업관측본부 모형연구팀) ;
  • 서홍석 (한국농촌경제연구원 농업관측본부 모형연구팀)
  • Kim, Junki (Department of Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Choi, Seung-cheon (Department of Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Kim, Jaehwi (Department of Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Seo, Hong-Seok (Department of Agricultural Outlook, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 투고 : 2020.08.24
  • 심사 : 2020.10.11
  • 발행 : 2020.12.31
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초록

양파는 기상여건에 따른 작황의 변동성이 커 생산량 및 가격 변화가 크다. 정부는 양파를 수급 민감 품목으로 지정하여 다양한 수급 안정대책을 마련하고 시행하는데 이를 위해서는 선제적이고 신뢰도 높은 양파 생산량 예측 정보가 필수적이다. 본 연구에서는 양파의 5월 초 지상부 생육정보와 5월 초부터 수확기까지의 기상정보를 이용하여 최종 생구 무게에 미치는 영향을 추정함으로써 생산량 예측의 정확도 개선에 기여하고자 한다. 위계적 특성을 갖고 있는 자료를 통해 개체별 생육요인인 1-수준 자료와 필지별 기상요인인 2-수준 자료, 그리고 두 수준 간 상호작용을 고려한 다층모형을 도입하여 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 5월 초에 엽수, 엽초경, 초장의 생육이 좋을수록 최종 생구 무게는 증가하는 것으로 추정되었다. 5월 초부터 수확기까지의 기상요인에서는 강수량, 고온일수, 탄소동화저해일수가 생구 무게에 음의 효과가 나타났으며, 일교차와 수확전강수량은 양의 효과로 통계적으로 유의하였다. 또한 1-수준과 2-수준의 교호작용항을 고려하여 모형의 적합도와 설명력을 향상시켰다.

Onions show severe volatility in production and price because crop conditions highly depend on the weather. The government has designated onions as a sensitive agricultural product, and prepared various measures to stabilize the supply and demand. First of all, preemptive and reliable information on predicting onion production is essential to implement appropriate and effective measures. This study aims to contribute to improving the accuracy of production forecasting by developing a model to estimate the final weight of onions bulb. For the analysis, multi-level model is used to reflect the hierarchical data characteristics consisting of above-ground growth data in individual units and meteorological data in parcel units. The result shows that as the number of leaf, stem diameter, and plant height in early May increase, the bulb weight increases. The amount of precipitation as well as the number of days beyond a certain temperature inhibiting carbon assimilation have negative effects on bulb weight, However, the daily range of temperature and more precipitation near the harvest season are statistically significant as positive effects. Also, it is confirmed that the fitness and explanatory power of the model is improved by considering the interaction terms between level-1 and level-2 variables.

키워드

참고문헌

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