Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회지)

Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (한국농림기상학회)
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Evaluation of Regional Flowering Phenological Models in Niitaka Pear by Temperature Patterns

경과기온 양상에 따른 신고 배의 지역별 개화예측모델 평가

  • Received : 2020.11.12
  • Accepted : 2020.12.16
  • Published : 2020.12.30
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Abstract

Flowering time has been put forward due to the recent abnormally warm winter, which often caused damages of flower buds by late frosts persistently. In the present study, cumulative chill unit and cumulative heat unit of Niitaka pear, which are required for releasing the endogenous dormancy and for flowering after breaking dormancy, respectively, were compared between flowering time prediction models used in South K orea. Observation weather data were collected at eight locations for the recent three years from 2018-2020. The dates of full bloom were also collected to determine the confidence level of models including DVR, mDVR and CD models. It was found that mDVR model tended to have smaller values (8.4%) of the coefficient of variation (cv) of chill units than any other models. The CD model tended to have a low value of cv (17.5%) for calculation of heat unit required to reach flowering after breaking dormancy. The mDVR model had the most accurate prediction of full bloom during the study period compared with the other models. The DVR model usually had poor skills in prediction of full bloom dates. In particular, the error of the DVR model was large especially in southern coastal areas (e.g., Ulju and Sacheon) where the temperature was warm. Our results indicated that the mDVR model had relatively consistent accuracy in prediction of full bloom dates over region and years of interest. When observation data for full bloom date are compiled for an extended period, the full bloom date can be predicted with greater accuracy improving the mDVR model further.

기후변화에 특히 민감한 농업분야에서 최근 겨울철 이상난동 현상으로 과실류의 개화시기는 앞당겨지고 있으며, 늦서리에 의한 꽃눈의 피해는 지속적으로 발생하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 꽃눈이 늦가을부터 휴면에 진입하여 추운 겨울을 지나 싹이 트고 꽃이 피는 봄까지 경과 기온의 양상이 식물의 개화반응에 어떤 영향을 미치는지 살펴보고자 하였다. 이를 위해 남한에서 주로 활용되고 있는 개화예측모델을 대상으로 최근 3년간 8개 지점에서 관측된 기온 자료를 확보하여 신고 배의 내생휴면 해제를 위해 필요한 냉각량과, 휴면타파 이후 개화까지 요구되는 가온량의 일정기간 누적값을 모델별로 각각 비교하고, 객관적으로 평가할 수 있는 관측 만개일 정보를 수집하여 지역별 모델 예측력을 평가하였다. 변동계수로 살펴본 냉각량 계산에 대한 모델별 성능은 mDVR 모델에서 8.4%로 가장 안정적인 것으로 확인되었고, 휴면해제 이후 개화에 도달하기까지 필요한 가온량에 대한 모델별 변동계수는 CD 모델이 17.5%로 낮은 편이었다. 2018년부터 2020년까지 3년간의 신고 배의 만개기 관측날짜로부터 평가한 DVR 모델, mDVR 모델, CD 모델의 만개기 예측력은 mDVR 모델의 정확도가 가장 높은 것으로 나타났고, DVR 모델이 전반적으로 좋지 않았다. 특히 울주나 사천 등 기온이 온난한 남부 해안지역에서 오차가 큰 경향이었으며, 예년에 비해 겨울철 기온이 유난히 따뜻했던 2019-2020년은 이천을 제외한 모든 지점에서 실제 개화일보다 빠르게 예측하는 결과를 보였다.

Keywords

References

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