디지털융복합연구 (Journal of Digital Convergence)

한국디지털정책학회 (The Society of Digital Policy and Management)
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노동력 고령화가 노동 생산성에 미치는 영향 분석: 우리나라 지역별 패널통계 활용

The impact of Workforce Aging on Labor Productivity: Using the Regional Panel Dataset in Korea

  • 정용훈 (고려대학교 경제통계학부) ;
  • 이성훈 (고려대학교 경제통계학부)
  • Jung, Yonghun (Division of Economics and Statistics, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Seong-Hoon (Division of Economics and Statistics, Korea University)
  • 투고 : 2019.09.19
  • 심사 : 2019.11.20
  • 발행 : 2019.11.28
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초록

본 연구는 1995년부터 2017년까지의 16개 지방자치단체 지역별 패널통계를 활용하여 노동력 고령화가 노동 생산성에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 지역별 고정효과와 다양한 조정변수들을 고려한 패널회귀분석 결과에서 총취업자 중 60세 이상의 취업자 비중으로 정의한 노동력 고령화는 노동 생산성에 매우 일관되고 유의한 음(-)의 효과를 주며, 부정적인 효과의 크기는 노동력 고령화가 1% 증가할 때마다 노동 생산성이 약 0.14 ~ 0.20% 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 이밖에 조정변수로 고려된 1인당 자본스톡과 인적자본은 노동 생산성이 증가하는데 많은 기여를 하고, 경기변동의 대리변수인 실업률은 예상과 같이 노동 생산성에 유의한 음(-)의 효과를 미치며, 비록 유의하지는 않지만, 전체 산업 중 서비스업의 비중을 의미하는 산업구조의 계수가 양(+)의 값을 보이지만 유의하지 않은 것으로 확인되었다. 본 연구의 결과를 통해 노동력 고령화로 예상되는 노동 생산성의 감소를 억제하기 위해 인적자본을 유지 및 확충할 수 있는 경제 및 교육정책의 설계와 구축이 필요하다는 시사점을 도출할 수 있다.

This study analyzed the effects of labor aging on labor productivity using panel statistics of 16 local governments from 1995 to 2017. The aging of the labor force, defined as the proportion of workers aged 60 or older in total employment, in the results of the panel regression analysis considering regional fixed effects and various adjustment variables, has a very consistent and significant negative effect on labor productivity. For every 1% increase in aging, labor productivity decreases by about 0.14 ~ 0.20%. In addition, the per capita capital stock and human capital considered as adjustment variables contributed to the increase of labor productivity, and the unemployment rate, which is a proxy variable of the economic fluctuation, has a significant negative effect on labor productivity as expected. The coefficient of the industrial structure, which represents the share of the service industry in the whole industry, was positive, but is not significant. The results of this study suggest that the design and construction of economic and educational policies that can maintain and expand human capital are necessary to curb the reduction in labor productivity expected by the aging workforce.

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