Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Estimation and evaluation on the return period of flash flood for small mountainous watersheds in the Han River basin

한강유역 산지소하천의 돌발홍수 재현기간 산정 및 평가

  • Kim, Hwa-Yeon (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University) ;
  • Kim, Jeong-Bae (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University) ;
  • Bae, Deg-Hyo (Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Sejong University)
  • 김화연 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 김정배 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과) ;
  • 배덕효 (세종대학교 건설환경공학과)
  • Received : 2018.12.10
  • Accepted : 2019.02.26
  • Published : 2019.04.30
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Abstract

The objectives of this study are to estimate the return period of flash flood and evaluate its appropriateness based on the actual observation events for small mountainous watersheds in the Han River basin. For these goals, Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) was estimated from 1-hr duration Threshold Runoff (TR) and Saturation Deficit (SD) of soil moisture which was derived from Sejong University Rainfall Runoff (SURR) model. Then, the return period of flash flood was calculated by comparing the rainfall quantile to the 1-hr duration rainfall that exceeded the FFG during the past period (2002-2010). Moreover, the appropriateness of the estimated return period of flash flood was evaluated by using the observation events from 2011 to 2016. The results of the return period of flash flood ranged from 1.1 to 19.9 years with a mean and a standard deviation of 1.6 and 1.1 years, respectively. Also, the result of the appropriateness indicated that 83% of the return periods derived from observation events were within the return period of flash flood range. Therefore, the estimated return period of flash flood could be considered as highly appropriate.

본 연구에서는 한강유역 산지소하천 미세소유역별 돌발홍수 재현기간을 산정하고, 돌발홍수 실사례를 활용하여 적합성을 평가하였다. 이를 위해 1시간 지속기간의 한계유출량과 SURR 모형으로 모의한 토양포화미흡량으로부터 돌발홍수능을 산정하였다. 이후 돌발홍수능을 초과한 과거 집중호우 사상(2002~2010년)의 강우량과 재현기간별 유역평균확률강우량을 비교하여 미세소유역별 돌발홍수 재현기간을 산정하였다. 또한, 돌발홍수 실사례(2011~2016년) 강수량으로부터 추정된 재현기간을 활용하여 적합성을 평가하였다. 돌발홍수 재현기간 산정결과 평균은 1.6년, 표준편차는 1.1로 산정되었으며, 1.1~19.9년 범위로 나타났다. 적합성 평가결과 돌발홍수 사례별 추정된 재현기간의 83%가 돌발홍수 재현기간 범위 이내로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 산정한 돌발홍수 재현기간의 적합성은 높은 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Flowchart of study

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Fig. 2. Study area and datasets

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Fig. 3. Spatial distribution and relative frequency of TR

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Fig. 4. Saturation deficit and flash flood guidance in small mountainous watersheds

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Fig. 5. Time series of MAP and FFG in small mountainous watersheds

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Fig. 6. Return periods of flash flood cases in small mountainous watersheds

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Fig. 7. The characteristics of the return period of flash flood

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Fig. 8. Observation events of flash flood

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Fig. 9. Evaluation on the return period of flash flood

Table 1. Property of the observation events in the Han river basin

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