Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A Study on the development of a heavy rainfall risk impact evaluation matrix

호우위험영향평가 매트릭스 개발에 관한 연구

  • Jung, Seung Kwon (Department of Informatization, International Center for Urban Water Hydroinformatics Research & Innovation) ;
  • Kim, Byung Sik (Graduate School of Disaster Prevention, Kangwon National University)
  • 정승권 ((재)국제도시물정보과학연구원 정보화연구실) ;
  • 김병식 (강원대학교 방재전문대학원)
  • Received : 2018.12.19
  • Accepted : 2018.12.26
  • Published : 2019.02.28
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Abstract

In this study, we developed a heavy rainfall risk impact matrix, which can be used to evaluate the influence of heavy rainfall risk, and propose a method to evaluate the impact of heavy rainfall risk. We evaluated the heavy rainfall risk impact for each receptor (Residential, Transport, Utility) on Sadang-dong using the heavy rainfall event on July 27, 2011. For this purpose, the potential risk impact was calculated by combining the impact level and the rainfall depth based on the grid. Heavy Rainfall Risk Impact was calculated by combining with Likelihood to predict the heavy rainfall impact, and the degree of heavy rainfall in the Sadang-dong area was analyzed and presented based on grid.

본 연구에서는 기존의 정량적인 강수량 정보를 제공하는 방식에서 벗어나 호우발생에 따른 생활환경의 변화에 끼치는 영향을 고려한 호우영향예보서비스의 필요성을 기반으로 호우위험영향도 평가가 가능한 호우재해 위험영향 매트릭스를 개발하고, 이를 통해 호우위험영향을 평가하는 방법을 제시하였다. 사당동 일대를 대상으로 실제 발생 호우사상(2011년 7월 27일)을 적용하였으며, 호우에 의한 침수로 영향을 받는 대상별(사람, 교통, 시설) 호우위험영향평가를 수행하였다. 이를 위해 1 km 격자기반으로 호우위험정도(Impact Level)를 산정하고, 침수심 결과를 조합하여 격자기반의 잠재호우위험영향(Potential Risk Impact)을 산정하였다. 여기에 강우발생가능성 Likelihood와의 조합을 통해 호우영향예보가 가능한 호우위험영향(Heavy Rainfall Risk Impact) 값을 산정하여 사당동 지역의 호우영향정도를 격자기반으로 4개의 등급으로 분석, 제시하였다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Risk impact matrix cube

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Fig. 2. Heavy rainfall risk impact matrix

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Fig. 3. Example of likelihood estimation

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Fig. 4. Development method of threshold rainfall-depth curve

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Fig. 5. Development of impact library

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Fig. 6. Potential risk impact of receptor

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Fig. 7. Overall potential risk impact of receptor

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Fig. 8. Estimation method of risk impact using the matrix

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Fig. 10. Sample cases of threshold-depth curve

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Fig. 11. Threshold depth of receptor

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Fig. 9. Study area – Sadang dong area

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Fig. 12. Estimation of risk impact level by receptor

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Fig. 13. Estimation of potential risk impact by receptor

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Fig. 14. Evaluation of heavy rainfall risk impact

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Fig. 15. Verication of heavy rainfall risk impact in sadang station

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Fig. 16. Verication of heavy rainfall risk impact in seocho-4dong community center

Table 1. Evaluation standard of risk impact level

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Table 2. Hourly heavy rainfall risk impact evaluation in sadang station (11, July, 2018)

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Table 3. Hourly heavy rainfall risk impact evaluation in seocho-4dong community center (11, July, 2018)

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