Journal of Digital Convergence (디지털융복합연구)

The Society of Digital Policy and Management (한국디지털정책학회)
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Analysis of the Relationship between House Price, Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Variables

주택가격, 소득불평등 및 거시경제변수간의 관계분석

  • 권선희 (대진대학교 글로벌경제학과) ;
  • 현성민 (대진대학교 글로벌경제학과)
  • Received : 2018.10.16
  • Accepted : 2019.01.20
  • Published : 2019.01.28
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Abstract

This study analyzed the relationship between housing price, purchase price, Gini coefficient, interest rate, and the employment, considering that the change in housing price was an important factor influencing macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The panel VAR model was constructed considering the panel data, and the Granger causality, Impulse response and Variance dispersion analysis were performed. As a result, when compared to before and after the global financial crisis, it was shown that the rent price had an effect on income inequality, but in the following period, both the rent price and the selling price affected the income inequality. And that it has a large impact on inequality. In addition, the causality between income inequality and employment rate, interest rate, and tax rate was confirmed. Therefore, it is expected that it will be a desirable policy to mitigate income inequality considering the influence of policy variables for economic activation including government real estate policy.

본 연구는 주택가격의 변화가 거시경제변수와 소득불평등에 영향을 미치는 중요한 요인으로 작용하였을 것으로 판단하여 주택 전세가격과 매매가격, 지니계수, 금리, 취업자수와의 관계를 분석하였다. 2003년부터 2016년까지 국내 16개 광역시 도의 자료를 활용한 패널분석을 하였고 패널자료임을 감안하여 패널 VAR모형을 구축한 뒤 그랜저인과관계, 충격반응함수, 분산분해분석을 실시하였다. 그랜저인과성 검사와 충격반응검사 결과, 주택시장의 매매가격과 취업자수, 금리가 소득불평등에 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 글로벌 금융위기 이전에는 전세가격만이 통계적으로 유의한 결과를 보였지만 금융위기 이후에는 주택 전세가격과 매매가격이 유의한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 분산분해분석 결과에서는 금융위기 이전에는 전세가격이 소득불평등에 미치는 영향력이 크게 나타난 반면에 금융위기 이후에는 전세가격의 영향력이 낮아지고 금리가 큰 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타나, 금리, 취업자수, 주택시장의 매매가격과 전세가격이 소득불평등에 주요한 요인으로 작용할 수 있다는 것으로 확인되었다. 따라서 정부의 부동산 정책을 비롯한 경제 활성화를 위한 정책시 변수들간의 영향력을 고려하여 소득불평등을 완화시킬 수 있는 정책수립이 될 수 있길 기대한다.

Keywords

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Fig. 1. Housing Sale Price Index and Rent Price Index Source: KB Bank,

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Fig. 2. Trend of Gini coefficient Source: korean labor panel (https://www.kli.re.kr)

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Fig. 3. Trend of Macroeconomics Variables Source: kosis.kr, The Bank of Korea

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Fig. 4. Impulse Response

Table 1. Granger Causality Test

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Table 2. Variance Decomposition

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