Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회지)

The Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies (한국지리정보학회)
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Forecasting Monthly Agricultural Reservoir Storage and Estimation of Reservoir Drought Index (RDI) Using Meteorological Data Based Multiple Linear Regression Analysis

기상자료기반 다중선형회귀분석에 의한 농업용 저수지 월단위 저수율 예측 및 저수지 가뭄지수(RDI) 추정

  • LEE, Ji-Wan (Dept. of Civil & Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • KIM, Jin-Uk (Dept. of Civil, Environmental & Plant Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • JUNG, Chung-Gil (Dept. of Civil & Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • KIM, Seong-Joon (Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • 이지완 (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김진욱 (건국대학교 사회환경플랜트공학과) ;
  • 정충길 (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 김성준 (건국대학교 사회환경공학부)
  • Received : 2018.07.06
  • Accepted : 2018.08.20
  • Published : 2018.09.30
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to estimate monthly agricultural reservoir storage with multiple linear regression model(MLRM) based on reservoir storage and meteorological data. The regression model was developed using 15 years(2002 to 2016) of 3,067 reservoirs by KRC(Korea Rural Community) and 63 meteorological stations by KMA (Korean Meteorological Administration), and the MLRM showed the determination coefficient($R^2$) of 0.51~0.95. The MLRM was applied to 9 selected reservoirs among the whole reservoirs and validated with $R^2$ of 0.44~0.81. The ROC(Receiver Operating Characteristics) analysis of Reservoir Drought Index(RDI) classified by comparing the present reservoir storage with normal year(1976~2005 average) reservoir storage showed average value of 0.64 for 2 years(2015~2016) with the highest value of 0.70 for winter period, lowest value of 0.58 for summer period. If 1 to 3 months weather forecasting data such as Glosea5 produced by KMA are applied, the predicted monthly reservoir storage from the MLRM can be a useful information for agricultural drought pre-preparation.

본 논문의 목적은 농업용 저수지 저수율 계측자료와 기상인자와의 다중선형회귀분석을 통해 저수율 예측 월단위 회귀식을 산정하는데 있다. 2002년부터 2016년까지의 한국농어촌공사 저수지 3,067개에 대한 저수율 관측자료와 기상청 63개 지점 관측자료를 수집하여 저수율 예측 다중선형 회귀식을 도출하였으며, 개발된 월별 회귀식에 대한 $R^2$는 0.51~0.95로 분석되었다. 또한 회귀식의 적용성 평가를 위해 9개 대표저수지에 대해 관측값과 비교한 $R^2$는 0.44~0.81로 나타났다. 회귀식을 이용하여 평년(1976-2005) 대비 저수지 가뭄지수(Reservoir Drought Index, RDI)를 산정하여 ROC 분석을 수행한 결과, 극심한 가뭄의 경우 2년(2015~2016) 평균 적중률은 0.64로 겨울의 적중률이 0.70으로 가장 높았고, 여름의 적중률이 0.58로 가장 낮게 나타났으며, 봄과 가을의 적중률은 각각 0.59, 0.68로 분석되었다. 본 연구에서 도출한 회귀식은 가용한 관측자료 및 1~3개월의 장기 기상전망자료 기반의 월단위 저수율 전망자료 생산이 가능하므로, 이를 기반으로 농업가뭄 전망정보의 생산이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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