한국태양광발전학회지 (Bulletin of the Korea Photovoltaic Society)

  • 제4권2호
  • /
  • Pages.45-53
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  • 2018
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  • 2384-356X(pISSN)
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  • 2672-0353(eISSN)
한국태양광발전학회 (Korea Photovoltaic Society)
권호 표지

발전용 천연가스 일일수요 예측 모형 연구-평일수요를 중심으로

  • 정희엽 (고려대학교 그린스쿨, 한국가스공사) ;
  • 박호정 (고려대학교 그린스쿨)
  • 발행 : 2018.08.31
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초록

Natural gas demand for power generation continued to increase until 2013 due to the expansion of large-scale LNG power plants after the black-out of 2011. However, natural gas demand for power generation has decreased sharply due to the increase of nuclear power and coal power generation. But demand for power generation has increased again as energy policies have changed, such as reducing nuclear power and coal power plants, and abnormal high temperatures and cold waves have occurred. If the gas pipeline pressure can be properly maintained by predicting these fluctuations, it can contribute to enhancement of operation efficiency by minimizing the operation time of facilities required for production and supply. In this study, we have developed a regression model with daily power demand and base power generation capacity as explanatory variables considering characteristics by day of week. The model was constructed using data from January 2013 to December 2016, and it was confirmed that the error rate was 4.12% and the error rate in the 90th percentile was below 8.85%.

키워드

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