Journal of the Korean earth science society (한국지구과학회지)

The Korean Earth Science Society (한국지구과학회)
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Improvement of Non-linear Estimation Equation of Rainfall Intensity over the Korean Peninsula by using the Brightness Temperature of Satellite and Radar Reflectivity Data

기상위성 휘도온도와 기상레이더 반사도 자료를 이용한 한반도 영역의 강우강도 추정 비선형 관계식 개선

  • Choi, Haklim (Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, KyungPook National University) ;
  • Seo, Jong-Jin (Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, KyungPook National University) ;
  • Bae, Juyeon (Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, KyungPook National University) ;
  • Kim, Sujin (Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, KyungPook National University) ;
  • Lee, Kwang-Mog (Department of Astronomy and Atmospheric Sciences, KyungPook National University)
  • 최학림 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과) ;
  • 서종진 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과) ;
  • 배주연 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과) ;
  • 김수진 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과) ;
  • 이광목 (경북대학교 천문대기과학과)
  • Received : 2017.11.30
  • Accepted : 2018.04.24
  • Published : 2018.04.30
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Abstract

The purpose of this study is to improve the quantitative precipitation estimation method based on satellite brightness temperature. The non-linear equation for rainfall estimation is improved by analysing precipitation cases around the Korean peninsula in summer. Radar reflectivity is adopted the CAPPI 1.5 and CMAX composite fields that provided by the Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA). In addition, the satellite data are used infrared, water vapor and visible channel measured from meteorological imager sensor mounted on the Chollian satellite. The improved algorithm is compared with the results of the A-E method and CRR analytic function. POD, FAR and CSI are 0.67, 0.76 and 0.21, respectively. The MAE and RMSE are 2.49 and 6.18 mm/h. As the quantitative error was reduced in comparison to A-E and qualitative accuracy increased in compare with CRR, the disadvantage of both algorithms are complemented. The method of estimating precipitation through a relational expression can be used for short-term forecasting because of allowing precipitation estimation in a short time without going through complicated algorithms.

본 연구의 목적은 위성의 밝기온도를 기반으로 한 정량적 강우량 추정기법의 개선을 위함이다. 우리나라 여름철 강우사례를 이용하여 강우추정을 위한 비선형 관계식을 개선하였다. 분석을 위해 레이더 자료로 기상청 기상레이더 관측망의 고도 1.5 km와 CMAX 반사도 합성자료를 사용하였으며, 위성자료는 천리안 위성의 가시, 적외, 수증기 채널의 자료를 이용하였다. 새롭게 도출된 알고리즘은 A-E method, CRR v4.0 analytic function의 결과와 비교를 하였다. 검증을 위해 우리나라 ASOS에서 관측한 지상강우량 자료를 사용하였다. 공간검증을 위해 검증지수로 POD, FAR, CSI를 계산하였으며 각각 0.67, 0.76, 0.21로 나타났다. 정량적 강우검증을 위해 MAE와 RMSE를 계산하였으며 각각 2.49, 6.18 mm/h였다. A-E에 비하여 정량적인 오차가 줄어들었으며 CRR에 비하여 공간적인 정확도가 증가하였다. 개선한 관계식을 적용한 방법이 두 알고리즘의 부족한 부분을 보완할 수 있는 것으로 판단된다. 개선한 관계식을 통해 강우를 추정하는 방법은 복잡한 알고리즘을 거치지 않고 짧은 시간에 강우추정이 가능함으로써 현업용 실시간 초단기 예보에 활용될 수 있다.

Keywords

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