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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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Future Sea Level Projections over the Seas Around Korea from CMIP5 Simulations

CMIP5 자료를 활용한 우리나라 미래 해수면 상승

  • Heo, Tae-Kyung (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kim, Youngmi (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Boo, Kyung-On (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Byun, Young-Hwa (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Cho, Chunho (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 허태경 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 김영미 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 부경온 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 변영화 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 조천호 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과)
  • Received : 2017.11.07
  • Accepted : 2018.01.22
  • Published : 2018.03.31
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Abstract

This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

Keywords

References

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