Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Development of Ingrowth Estimation Equations for Pinus densiflora in Korea Derived from National Forest Inventory Data

국가산림자원조사 자료를 이용한 소나무의 진계생장 추정식 개발

  • Moon, Ga Hyun (Division of Forest Industry Research, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Yim, Jong Su (Division of Forest Industry Research, National Institute of Forest Science) ;
  • Shin, Man Yong (Department of Forest, Environment, and System, Kookmin University)
  • 문가현 (국립산림과학원 산림산업연구과) ;
  • 임종수 (국립산림과학원 산림산업연구과) ;
  • 신만용 (국민대학교 산림환경시스템학과)
  • Received : 2018.08.23
  • Accepted : 2018.10.24
  • Published : 2018.12.31
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Abstract

This study was conducted to develop ingrowth estimation equations on Pinus densiflora found in Gangwon Province and in the center of Korean Peninsula, based on the National Forest Inventory (NFI)'s permanent sampling plot data. For this study, identical sampling plots in $5^{th}$ and $6^{th}$ NFI data were collected in order to identify ingrowth amounts for the last 5 years. Following two-stage approaches in developing the ingrowth estimation equations, the logistic regression model was used in the first stage to estimate the ingrowth probability. In the second stage, regression analysis on sampling plots with ingrowth occurrence was used to estimate the ingrowth amount. A candidate model was finally selected as an optimal model after a verification based on three evaluation statistics which include mean difference (MD), standard deviation of difference (SDD) and standard error of difference (SED). In results, a logistic regression model based on the number of sampling plot which did not result in ingrowth (model VI), was selected for an ingrowth probability estimation equation and exponential function including the species composition (SC) variable was optimal for an ingrowth estimation equation (model VII). The ingrowth estimation equations developed in this study also evaluated the estimation ability in various forest stand conditions, and no particular issue in fitness or applicability was observed.

본 연구는 국가산림자원조사(NFI) 고정표본점 자료를 기반으로 우리나라에 분포하는 강원지방소나무와 중부지방소나무의 진계생장 추정식을 개발하기 위한 목적으로 수행되었다. 이를 위해 5년 동안의 진계생장량을 파악할 수 있는 정보를 제공하는 제5차 및 제6차 NFI의 동일 표본점 자료를 활용하였다. 진계생장 추정식 개발을 위한 2단계 접근법에 따라 첫 번째 단계에서는 진계생장 발생확률을 추정하기 위해 로지스틱 회귀모형을 이용하여 분석을 수행하였으며, 두 번째 단계에서는 진계생장이 발생한 표본점만을 대상으로 회귀식을 이용하여 진계생장량을 추정하였다. 또한 최적 모형의 선정은 회귀계수가 추정된 후보모형에 대해 모형의 평균편의(MD), 모형의 정도(SDD), 그리고 모형의 표준오차(SED)의 3가지 평가통계량을 분석한 결과에 근거하여 도출하였다. 그 결과 진계확률 추정식은 진계가 발생하지 않은 표본점 수에 기반한 로지스틱 회귀모형(모형 VI)이 선정되었고, 진계생장량 추정식에는 수종구성(SC) 변수를 포함한 지수함수식(모형 VII)이 최적모형으로 분석되었다. 이상과 같이 개발된 진계생장 추정식은 다양한 임분조건에 대해 추정능력을 평가하였으며, 적합도나 활용적인 측면에서 문제가 없는 것으로 평가되었다.

Keywords

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Figure 1. Study area and a permanent sample plot of 4km sampling intensity.

Table 1. Summary of ingrowth attributes by Pinus densiflora.

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Table 2. Model forms used in this study for the estimation of ingrowth probability.

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Table 3. Model forms for the estimation of ingrowth amount as number of trees per hectare.

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Table 4. Estimation equations for probability of ingrowth occurrence by Pinus densiflora.

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Table 5. Statistics of ingrowth probability estimated by using ingrowth probability equations by Pinus densiflora.

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Table 6. Estimation equations for ingrowth amount as number of trees per hectare by Pinus densiflora.

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Table 7. Validation of estimation equations for ingrowth amount as number of trees per hectare by Pinus densiflora.

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Table 8. Ingrowth amount estimates of number of trees per hectare based on the final ingrowth amount estimation equations byPinus densiflora.

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