The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies (한국전자거래학회지)

Society for e-Business Studies (한국전자거래학회)
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Predicting Performance of Heavy Industry Firms in Korea with U.S. Trade Policy Data

미국 무역정책 변화가 국내 중공업 기업의 경영성과에 미치는 영향

  • Received : 2017.10.16
  • Accepted : 2017.11.16
  • Published : 2017.11.30
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Abstract

Since late 2016, protectionism has been a major trend in world trade with the Great Britain exiting the European Union and the United States electing Donald Trump as the 45th president. Consequently, there has been a huge public outcry regarding the negative prospects of heavy industry firms in Korea, which are highly dependent upon international trade with Western countries including the United States. In light of such trend and concerns, we have tried to predict business performance of heavy industry firms in Korea with data regarding trade policy of the United States. United States International Trade Commission (USITC) levies countervailing duties and anti-dumping duties to firms that violate its fair-trade regulations. In this study, we have performed data analysis with past records of countervailing duties and anti-dumping duties. With results from clustering analysis, it could be concluded that trade policy trends of the Unites States significantly affects the business performance of heavy industry firms in Korea. Furthermore, we have attempted to quantify such effects by employing long short-term memory (LSTM), a popular neural networks model that is well-suited to deal with sequential data. Our major contribution is that we have succeeded in empirically validating the intuitive argument and also predicting the future trend with rigorous data mining techniques. With some improvements, our results are expected to be highly relevant to designing regulations regarding heavy industry in Korea.

미국 무역위원회(United States International Trade Commission)는 불공정 무역으로 인해 무역 질서를 해치는 경우 상계 관세(Countervailing Duties)와 반덤핑 관세(Antidumping Duties) 등을 징수하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 상기 연구 목적을 달성하기 위하여 상계 관세 및 반덤핑 관세와 관련된 데이터를 수집해 양적 분석을 수행하였다. 몇 가지 데이터 마이닝(Data mining) 기법을 활용한 본 연구의 양적 분석 결과, 미국의 상계 관세 및 반덤핑 관세 부과 경향이 우리나라의 중공업 산업의 성장률에 유의한 영향을 미친다고 잠정적으로 결론 내릴 수 있었다. 본 연구의 가장 큰 기여점은 '미국의 보호주의 무역기조가 울산지역의 주력산업의 경영성과에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 수 있다'는 직관적인 명제를 과거 데이터를 가지고 객관적으로 검증해보고 그 영향 정도를 계량화해 측정할 수 있도록 한 것이라고 할 수 있다.

Keywords

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