대기 (Atmosphere)

  • 제27권2호
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  • Pages.133-150
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  • 2017
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  • 1598-3560(pISSN)
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  • 2288-3266(eISSN)
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)
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CMIP5 모델에 나타난 동아시아 여름몬순의 모의 성능평가와 미래변화

Evaluation of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Season Simulated in CMIP5 Models and the Future Change

  • 권상훈 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 부경온 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 심성보 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 변영화 (국립기상과학원 기후연구과)
  • 투고 : 2016.12.16
  • 심사 : 2017.05.12
  • 발행 : 2017.06.30
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초록

This study evaluates CMIP5 model performance on rainy season evolution in the East Asian summer monsoon. Historical (1986~2005) simulation is analyzed using ensemble mean of CMIP5 19 models. Simulated rainfall amount is underestimated than the observed and onset and termination of rainy season are earlier in the simulation. Compared with evolution timing, duration of the rainy season is uncertain with large model spread. This area-averaged analysis results mix relative differences among the models. All model show similarity in the underestimated rainfall, but there are quite large difference in dynamic and thermodynamic processes. The model difference is shown in horizontal distribution analysis. BEST and WORST group is selected based on skill score. BEST shows better performance in northward movement of the rain band, summer monsoon domain. Especially, meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature and low-level circulation for evolving frontal system is quite well captured in BEST. According to RCP8.5, CMIP5 projects earlier onset, delayed termination and longer duration of the rainy season with increasing rainfall amount at the end of 21st century. BEST and WORST shows similar projection for the rainy season evolution timing, meanwhile there are large discrepancy in thermodynamic structure. BEST and WORST in future projection are different in moisture flux, vertical structure of equivalent potential temperature and the subsequent unstable changes in the conditional instability.

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참고문헌

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