한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)

  • 제59권3호
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  • Pages.41-50
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  • 2017
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  • 1738-3692(pISSN)
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  • 2093-7709(eISSN)
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)
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SWAT모형을 이용한 RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 고랭지농업유역의 수문 및 수질 평가

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Highland Agricultural Watershed Hydrologic Cycle and Water Quality under RCP Scenarios using SWAT

  • Jang, Sun Sook (Konkuk University, Department of Civil, Environmental Plant Engineering) ;
  • Kim, Seong Joon (Konkuk University, Department of Civil, Environmental Plant Engineering)
  • 투고 : 2016.03.22
  • 심사 : 2017.04.17
  • 발행 : 2017.05.31
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초록

The purpose of this study were to evaluate the effect of best management practices (BMPs) of Haean highland agricultural catchment ($62.8km^2$) under future climate change using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). Before future evaluation, the SWAT was setup using 3 years (2009~2011) of observed daily streamflow, suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) data at three locations of the catchment. The SWAT was calibrated with average 0.74 Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency for streamflow, and 0.78, 0.63, and 0.79 determination coefficient ($R^2$) for SS, T-N, and T-P respectively. Under the HadGEM-RA RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the future precipitation and maximum temperature showed maximum increases of 8.3 % and $4.2^{\circ}C$ respectively based on the baseline (1981~2005). The future 2040s and 2080s hydrological components of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and streamflow showed changes of +3.2~+17.2 %, -0.1~-0.7 %, and -9.1~+8.1 % respectively. The future stream water quality of suspended solid (SS), total nitrogen (T-N), and total phosphorus (T-P) showed changes of -5.8~+29.0 %, -4.5~+2.3 %, and +3.7~+17.4 % respectively. The future SS showed wide range according to streamflow from minus to plus range. We can infer that this was from the increase of long-term rainfall variability in 2040s less rainfalls and 2080s much rainfalls. However, the results showed that the T-P was the future target to manage stream water quality even in 2040s period.

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참고문헌

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