대기 (Atmosphere)

  • 제27권1호
  • /
  • Pages.79-91
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  • 2017
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  • 1598-3560(pISSN)
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  • 2288-3266(eISSN)
한국기상학회 (Korean Meteorological Society)
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우리나라 인근과 유럽의 계절에 따른 강수와 기온의 관계 및 RCP8.5 시나리오에 기반한 미래 전망

The Seasonal Correlation Between Temperature and Precipitation Over Korea and Europe and the Future Change From RCP8.5 Scenario

  • 김진욱 (기상청 국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 부경온 (기상청 국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 심성보 (기상청 국립기상과학원 기후연구과) ;
  • 권원태 (제주발전연구원) ;
  • 변영화 (기상청 국립기상과학원 기후연구과)
  • Kim, Jin-Uk (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Boo, Kyung-On (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Shim, Sungbo (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences) ;
  • Kwon, Won-Tae (Jeju Development Institute) ;
  • Byun, Young-Hwa (Climate Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences)
  • 투고 : 2016.11.14
  • 심사 : 2017.02.06
  • 발행 : 2017.03.31
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초록

It is imperative to understand the characteristics of atmospheric circulation patterns under the climate system due to its impact on climatic factors. Thus this study focused on analyzing the impact of the atmospheric circulation on the relationship between precipitation and temperature regionally. Here we used monthly gridded observational data (i.e., CRU-TS3.2, NOAA-20CR V2c) and HadGEM2-AO climate model by RCP8.5, for the period of 1960~1999 and 2060~2099. The experiment results indicated that the negative relationship was presented over East Asia and Europe during summer. On the other hand, at around Korea (i.e. EA1: $31^{\circ}N{\sim}38^{\circ}N$, $126^{\circ}E{\sim}140^{\circ}E$) and Northwestern Europe (i.e. EU1: $48^{\circ}N{\sim}55^{\circ}N$, $0^{\circ}E{\sim}16^{\circ}E$) in winter, strong positive relationship dominate due to warm moist advection come from ocean related to intensity variation of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. It was found that values of positive relation in EA1 and EU1 at the end of the 21st century is regionally greater than at the end of 20th century during winter since magnitude of variation of the EAWM and NAO is projected to be greater in the future as result of simulation with RCP 8.5. Future summer, the negative correlations are weakened in EA1 region while strengthened in EU1 region. For better understanding of correlations with respect to RCP scenarios, a further study is required.

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