DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

북한 대함탄도미사일 위협 분석

Threat Assessment of Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM) of North Korea

  • 박영한 (해군사관학교 항해운용학과) ;
  • 오경원 (해군사관학교 항해운용학과) ;
  • 김지원 (국방대학교 무기체계학과)
  • 투고 : 2016.05.23
  • 심사 : 2016.09.20
  • 발행 : 2016.09.30

초록

This paper provides an empirical assessment of the development of North Korea's Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM), and its influence on South Korea's maritime strategy. While research studies on North Korea's ballistic-missile capabilities and South Korea's ballistic-missile defense systems are proliferating, less analytical attention has been given to the way that the strengthening of North Korea's ballistic-missile capacities presents a critical threat to the ROK's navy and lines of communication. The authors of this paper identify the continuing development of unique ASBM capabilities by China and Iran, and determine that such processes are mutually interactive and in accordance with threat perceptions; furthermore, North Korea can enact the same process by learning lessons from these nations. The findings of this paper provide an implication for the formulation of South Korea's maritime strategy and the related assets in consideration of the ASBM as a future threat.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. Thomas G. Mahnken, "China's Anti-Access Strategy in Historical and Theoretical Perspective", Journal of Strategic Studies, vol. 34, No. 3, pp. 299-300, 2011 https://doi.org/10.1080/01402390.2011.574971
  2. Geoffrey Till, "Sea power"(H. S. Bae, Trans), Institute for Maritime Strategy, Seoul, p.300, 2011
  3. Andrew Krepinevich, Barry Watts & Robert Work, "Meeting the Anti-Access and Area- Denial Challenge", Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, Washington, DC, p.ii, 2003
  4. U.S. DoD, "Joint Operational Access Concept", DoD, Washington D.C, pp.9-10, 2012
  5. Andrew S. Erickson, David D. Yang, "Using the Land to Control the Sea? ; Chinese Analysts Consider the Anti-ship Ballistic Missile", Naval War College Review, Vol.62, No.4, p.70, 2009.
  6. S. S. Lee, etc, "2016 Three Security Threat Assessment", RINSA, Seoul, p.13, 2015
  7. Jonathan F. Solomon, "Defending The Fleet from China's anti-ship ballistic missile: Naval deception's roles in sea-based missile defense", MA diss, Georgetown University, p.21, 2011
  8. U.S. DoD, "Annual Report to Congress [on] Military and Security Developments Involving the People's Republic of China 2016", DoD, Washington D.C, p.25, 2016
  9. IISS, "The Military Balance 2016", IISS, Taylor & Francis Inc., Philadelphia, p.329, 2016
  10. Y. S. Kwon, "The Technical Analysis and Assessment of North Korea Ballistic Missile", Journal of National Defense, Vol. 56, No. 1, p.4, 2013
  11. Robert Jervis, "Offense, Defense, and the Security Dilemma", International Politics : Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issue, 7th ed, Person Education, New York, p.2, 2005
  12. Roger Cliff et al., "Entering the Dragon's Lair", RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, p.90-92, 2007
  13. Y. S. Kwon etc, "Missile Defense Strategy", RINSA, Seoul, p.10, 2014
  14. Mark Stoke, China's Evolving Conventional Strategic Strike Capability(Project 2049 Institute, 2009) accssed October 10, 2015. https://project2049.net/documents/chinese_anti_ship_ballistic_missile_asbm.pdf.
  15. Chen Haidong, Yu Menglun, Xin Wanqing, Li Junhui, Zeng Qingxiang, “Study for the Guidance Scheme of Re-entry Vehicles Attacking Slowly Moving Targets,” Missiles and Space Vehicles, No. 6, 2000.