Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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A development of rating-curve using Bayesian Multi-Segmented model

Bayesian 기반 Multi-Segmented 곡선식을 활용한 수위-유량 곡선의 불확실성 분석

  • Kim, Jin-Young (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Kim, Jin-Guk (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University) ;
  • Lee, Jae Chul (Department of Civil Engineering and Informatics, Chungnam State University) ;
  • Kwon, Hyun-Han (Department of Civil Engineering, Chonbuk National University)
  • 김진영 (전북대학교 토목공학과 방재연구센터) ;
  • 김진국 (전북대학교 토목공학과 방재연구센터) ;
  • 이재철 (충남도립대학교 건설정보과) ;
  • 권현한 (전북대학교 토목공학과 방재연구센터)
  • Received : 2016.01.04
  • Accepted : 2016.02.05
  • Published : 2016.03.31
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Abstract

A Rating curve is a regression equation of discharge versus stage for a given point on a stream where the stream discharge is measured across the stream channel with a stage and discharge measurement. The curve is generally used to calculate discharge based on the stage. However, the existing approach showed problems in terms of estimating uncertainty associated with regression parameters including the separation parameter for low and high flow. In this regard, this study aimed to develop a new method for the aforementioned problems based on Bayesian approach, which can better estimate the parameter and its uncertainty. In addition, this study used a Bayesian Multi-Segmented (Bayesian M-S) model which is provided a comparison between the existing and proposed scheme. The proposed model showed better results for the parameter estimation than the existing approach, and provided better performance in terms of estimating uncertainty range.

수위-유량 관계곡선(rating curve)은 수위표에서 관측된 수위 및 유량을 이용하여 만들어진 회귀분석식을 의미하며, 하천의 수위를 유량으로 환산하는 방법으로 일반적으로 활용되고 있다. 그러나 수위-유량 관계곡선식에서 저수위와 고수위와 분리 및 매개변수 추정에 있어 불확실성을 고려한 해석은 이루어지지 않고 있다. 이러한 이유로 본 연구에서는 수위-유량 관계곡선식에서 매개변수 추정 및 저 고수위 분리시 발생하는 문제점을 개선하기 위해 Bayesian 기법을 도입하였으며, 수위-유량 관계곡선식의 매개변수의 추정과 더불어 불확실성을 정량화 하는데 목적을 두었다. 이와 더불어 Bayesian 모형 기반 Multi-Segmented 수위-유량 관계곡선(Bayesian M-S)을 활용하여 저 고수위를 분리할 수 있는 새로운 수위-유량 관계곡선을 개발하고 기존 수위-유량 관계곡선과 비교 분석을 실시하였다. 그 결과 본 연구에서 개발한 Bayesian M-S 기법이 기존 수위-유량 관계곡선식 보다 개선된 결과를 도출할 수 있었으며, 수위-유량 관계곡선식의 신뢰구간을 제시하는데 유리한 것을 확인할 수 있었다.

Keywords

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