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Korean Meteorological Society (한국기상학회)
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A Prediction of Precipitation Over East Asia for June Using Simultaneous and Lagged Teleconnection

원격상관을 이용한 동아시아 6월 강수의 예측

  • Lee, Kang-Jin (Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology) ;
  • Kwon, MinHo (Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Center, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology)
  • 이강진 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환.기후연구센터) ;
  • 권민호 (한국해양과학기술원 해양순환.기후연구센터)
  • Received : 2016.10.12
  • Accepted : 2016.12.04
  • Published : 2016.12.31
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Abstract

The dynamical model forecasts using state-of-art general circulation models (GCMs) have some limitations to simulate the real climate system since they do not depend on the past history. One of the alternative methods to correct model errors is to use the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) correction method. CCA forecasts at the present time show better skill than dynamical model forecasts especially over the midlatitudes. Model outputs are adjusted based on the CCA modes between the model forecasts and the observations. This study builds a canonical correlation prediction model for subseasonal (June) precipitation. The predictors are circulation fields over western North Pacific from the Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and observed snow cover extent over Eurasia continent from Climate Data Record (CDR). The former is based on simultaneous teleconnection between the western North Pacific and the East Asia, and the latter on lagged teleconnection between the Eurasia continent and the East Asia. In addition, we suggest a technique for improving forecast skill by applying the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) to individual canonical correlation predictions.

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References

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