Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A (대한기계학회논문집A)

The Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers (대한기계학회)
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Prognostics for Stator Windings of Water-Cooled Generator Against Water Absorption

수냉식 발전기 고정자 권선의 흡습 건전성 예지

  • Received : 2014.11.21
  • Accepted : 2015.04.07
  • Published : 2015.06.01
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Abstract

In this study, we develop a prognostic method of assessing the stator windings of power generators against water absorption through statistical data analysis and degradation modeling. The 42 windings of the generator are divided into two groups: the absorption and normal groups. A degradation model of a winding is constructed using Fick's second law to predict the level of absorption. By analyzing data from the normal group, we can determine the distribution of the data of normal windings. The health index of a winding is estimated using the directional Mahalanobis distance (DMD) method. Finally, the probability distributions of the failure time of the windings are determined.

본 연구에서는 수냉식 발전기 고정자 권선의 건전성 예지 방법에 대해 연구하였다. 권선의 데이터를 흡습 데이터와 정상 데이터로 분류 하였으며 각각의 데이터 군을 다른 방법으로 예측 하였다. 흡습 데이터를 예측하기 위해 픽의 제 2 법칙(Fick's second law)를 이용하여 건전성 감소 모델링을 하였고 픽의 제 2법칙의 해를 이용하여 흡습 모델식을 만들었다. 정상 데이터는 데이터의 분포가 정규분포를 따른다는 가설을 세운 후 카이제곱 검정을 통해 이를 입증하였다. 예측된 흡습 데이터와 정상 데이터를 이용하여 건전성 인자인 방향성 마할라노비스 거리(Directional mahalanobis distance; DMD)의 예측값을 산출하였고 흡습 권선의 고장 예상시점을 계산했다.

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References

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