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A Technical Assessment of Possibility Sanction for Assistance to DPRK

대북 바이오가스플랜트 지원의 제재 가능성에 대한 기술적 평가

  • Chung, Yongjin (Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Seoul National University of Sicence and Technology) ;
  • Kwon, Yongchai (Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Seoul National University of Sicence and Technology)
  • 정용진 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원) ;
  • 권용재 (서울과학기술대학교 에너지환경대학원)
  • Received : 2015.09.25
  • Accepted : 2015.12.10
  • Published : 2015.12.31

Abstract

Under the economic banner of "self-reliance," North Korea has focused on hydro and thermal power as its main energy supply sources. However, in the face of extreme energy penury caused by machinery and material supply instability in the wake of the collapse of the former communist block as well as equipment aging and deterioration due to floods and other disasters, North Korea and international aid organizations are increasingly turning their attention toward energy source diversification. In particular, renewable energy is recognized as the best strategic energy source for North Korea and it is a decentralized energy option that is suitable in light of North Korea's power distribution networks and its pursuit of self-reliance. Biogas can contribute to improving the human rights situation of North Koreans in conjunction with an increase in food production. For this reason, renewable energy is the most promising option for an energy source that is likely to secure humanitarian aid from international organizations such as the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP). However, the implementation of such humanitarian aid has been hampered by rising concerns about the diversion of provided energy materials for military purposes and the disguised introduction of dual use items strategic materials as well as UN Security Council resolutions and sanctions of the international community against North Korea's military provocation, including nuclear tests and missile launches. This paper explores the possibility of solving this dilemma and proceeding with the humanitarian aid to North Korea by evaluating the potential for sanction and the risk of diversion of the possible products for biogas-related aid on the basis of the list of UN-sanctioned items.

북한은 "자력갱생"의 경제기조 아래, 에너지 수급원을 수력과 화력에 집중해왔으나, 구 공산권의 몰락에 따른 관련 기자재 공급 불안정, 홍수 등 각종재해에 따른 설비 노후화 등에 기인한 극심한 에너지난을 겪으며, 에너지원의 다양화에 대한 관심이 대내외적으로 증대되고 있다. 특히, 신재생에너지는 북한 송전망 상황에 부합하는 분산형 에너지원이라는 점과, 자력갱생 기조에 부합하는 자체 생산 가능한 에너지라는 점에서 대북 에너지지원의 최선책으로 회자되고 있으며, 바이오가스는 식량증산과 연계하여 북한 주민의 인권 향상에 기여할 수 있어, 인도적 지원측면에서 FAO, WFP 등 국제기구를 통한 지원이 원활할 것으로 예상되는 바, 신재생에너지원 중에서도 지원가능성이 가장 높은 에너지원으로 손꼽히고 있다. 그러나 한편으로는 지원 물품의 군사적 용도로의 전용가능성과 전략물자의 유입에 대한 우려 또한 높은 실정이며, 북한의 핵실험 및 미사일 발사 등 군사적 도발에 따른 UN 안전보장이사회결의와 국제사회의 경제제재가 대북 지원의 걸림돌이 되고 있다. 본 논문에서는 바이오가스플랜트의 대북지원 가능 물품에 대하여 UN 제재품목여부를 기반으로 제재가능성을 평가하고, 원활한 대북지원을 위한 해결책을 논하고자 한다.

Keywords

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