Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
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Analysis on the Drivers of Growth in Forestry Sector and Growth Projection through Growth Accounting Analysis

성장회계분석을 통한 임산업의 성장요인분석과 전망

  • Lee, Yohan (Department of Sustainable Development, Yeungnam University) ;
  • Jung, Jaeho (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Min, KyungTaek (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 이요한 (영남대학교 지속가능발전학과) ;
  • 정재호 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) ;
  • 민경택 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부)
  • Received : 2015.07.15
  • Accepted : 2015.10.14
  • Published : 2015.12.31
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Abstract

This study analyzed a long-run growth trend of the forestry sector in the Republic of Korea, and forecasted the potential growth in the future after investigating main drivers of growth in the forestry sector through growth accounting analysis. Based on results, we finally suggested a direction to go forward in order to achieve a sustainable growth in the field. After Asia financial crisis, the growth rate of the forestry sector was getting stable with the fast recovery of Korean economy. While the main drivers of growth in the field was labor and capital accumulation in 1980s and 1990s, the main driver of growth has been the increment of capital accumulation since 2000. As the result of our analysis for forecasting the potential growth in the field, the contribution of labor, capital, TFP in total growth is expected as 0.09%, 1.58%, and -0.01%, respectively. The potential growth rate of the forestry sector during 2012-2020 is predicted to be 1.65% and the total production will become 36.25 trillion won.

이 연구에서는 과거 임산업의 성장과정을 분석하고 임산업의 성장회계분석을 통하여 투입요소별 성장기여도를 분해한 후 향후 임산업의 잠재 성장률을 전망하였다. 이 연구에서 나타난 임산업의 성장요인 분석결과를 토대로 궁극적으로는 임산업의 지속적인 성장을 위한 방향을 제시하였다. 외환위기 이후 경제의 빠른 회복과 함께 우리나라 임산업은 2000년 이후 성장률이 안정되었다. 그러나 과거 임산업은 노동과 자본의 투입에 기초한 성장을 하였다면, 2000년 이후에는 임산업의 성장은 자본 투입의 증가에 의해 주도되었다. 성장회계분석을 통해 잠재 성장률을 추정한 결과, 2012년부터 2020년의 기간 동안 임산업 생산액 평균성장률은 1.65%이며, 이에 대한 노동과 자본, 총요소생산성의 기여도는 각각 0.08%, 1.58%, -0.01%로 나타났다. 또한 이러한 성장 추세를 따른다고 가정한다면 2020년 임산업 총생산액은 약 36.25조 원에 이를 것으로 기대된다.

Keywords

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