한국습지학회지 (Journal of Wetlands Research)

  • 제17권4호
  • /
  • Pages.370-379
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  • 2015
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  • 1229-6031(pISSN)
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  • 2384-0056(eISSN)
한국습지학회 (Korean Wetlands Society)
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강우장 추정을 위한 공간보간기법의 적용성 평가

Applicability of Spatial Interpolation Methods for the Estimation of Rainfall Field

  • 장홍석 (인하대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 강나래 (인하대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 노희성 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천 연구소) ;
  • 이동률 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원.하천 연구소) ;
  • 최창현 (인하대학교 토목공학과) ;
  • 김형수 (인하대학교 토목공학과)
  • Jang, Hongsuk (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university) ;
  • Kang, Narae (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university) ;
  • Noh, Huiseong (Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT)) ;
  • Lee, Dong Ryul (Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT)) ;
  • Choi, Changhyun (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university) ;
  • Kim, Hung Soo (Department of Civil Engineering, Inha university)
  • 투고 : 2015.08.31
  • 심사 : 2015.10.16
  • 발행 : 2015.11.30
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초록

최근 기후변화로 인하여 돌발성 집중호우 등의 기상재해가 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 이러한 재해로 인한 피해의 대응을 위해서 강우의 정밀한 관측과 더불어서 정확한 공간분포의 파악도 중요한 문제로 대두되고 있다. 따라서 레이더 강우자료 등을 같이 활용하는 연구도 진행되어 왔으나, 아직까지 지상우량계의 강우공간분포를 추정하는데에는 한계가 존재하고 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 남강댐 유역을 대상으로 공간보간기법인 크리깅 기법을 적용하여 강우장을 추정하고자 하였다. 국내에서 일반적으로 사용되는 크리깅 기법인 OK(Ordinary Kriging), CK(Co-Kriging) 방법과 함께 KED(Kriging with External Drift) 기법을 적용하여 강우장을 추정하고 비교하여 각각의 기법의 적용성을 평가하고자 한다. 정량적 평가 결과, OK 기법은 상관계수 0.978, Slope best-fit line 0.915, $R^2$ 0.957의 값을 가지며 MAE, RMSE, MSSE, MRE 값이 0에 가장 근접하는 우수한 결과를 나타내었으며, 다음으로 KED, CK 순으로 좋은 결과를 나타내었다. 그러나 정량적 평가만으로는 강우의 공간분포에 대한 정확한 평가를 하는데 있어 한계성을 가지고 있으므로 강우공간분포의 참값으로 가정되는 레이더강우장과의 공간분포특성을 수치화하여 유사성을 비교할 수 있는 기법에 대한 제시가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

In recent, the natural disaster like localized heavy rainfall due to the climate change is increasing. Therefore, it is important issue that the precise observation of rainfall and accurate spatial distribution of the rainfall for fast recovery of damaged region. Thus, researches on the use of the radar rainfall data have been performed. But there is a limitation in the estimation of spatial distribution of rainfall using rain gauge. Accordingly, this study uses the Kriging method which is a spatial interpolation method, to measure the rainfall field in Namgang river dam basin. The purpose of this study is to apply KED(Kriging with External Drift) with OK(Ordinary Kriging) and CK(Co-Kriging), generally used in Korea, to estimate rainfall field and compare each method for evaluate the applicability of each method. As a result of the quantitative assessment, the OK method using the raingauge only has 0.978 of correlation coefficient, 0.915 of slope best-fit line, and 0.957 of $R^2$ and shows an excellent result that MAE, RMSE, MSSE, and MRE are the closest to zero. Then KED and CK are in order of their good results. But the quantitative assessment alone has limitations in the evaluation of the methods for the precise estimation of the spatial distribution of rainfall. Thus, it is considered that there is a need to application of more sophisticated methods which can quantify the spatial distribution and this can be used to compare the similarity of rainfall field.

키워드

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