Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회지)

Korean Society of Forest Science (한국산림과학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Outlook of Wood Products Markets with Supply and Demand Model

수급모형을 이용한 목제품 시장 전망

  • Lee, Sang-Min (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Kim, Kyeong-Duk (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Song, Seong-Hwan (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute) ;
  • Bark, Ji-Eun (Department of Forest Policy Research, Korea Rural Economic Institute)
  • 이상민 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) ;
  • 김경덕 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) ;
  • 송성환 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부) ;
  • 박지은 (한국농촌경제연구원 산림정책연구부)
  • Received : 2014.02.28
  • Accepted : 2014.08.13
  • Published : 2014.09.30
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

This study is aimed at developing a supply-demand model of wood products, and outlook for mid-term and long-term supply and demand for each products. The main wood products include sawnwood, plywood, particle board, fiberboard (MDF), and pulp. The partial equilibrium model is composed of supply function, import demand function, demand function, price relation function. With given parameters the outlook for year 2050 says that sawnwood, plywood, and fiberboard for domestic productions and imports are decreased. This may result from the increase of log prices from the inside and outside of the country because of the propensity for environment protection and the resource nationalism. On the other hand the supply of particle board and pulp will increase because they are made from wasted wood and chips.

이 연구는 목제품의 수급모형을 개발하고, 제품별로 중장기적인 수요와 공급을 전망하는 데 목적이 있다. 목제품 시장 수급모형은 주요 제품인 제재목, 합판, 파티클보드, 섬유판, 펄프 등으로 한정하였다. 각각의 제품에 대해 공급함수, 수입수요함수, 수요함수 등을 추정하여 부분균형 모형을 구축하였다. 주어진 외생변수를 이용하여 2050년까지 전망한 결과 제재목, 합판, 섬유판 등의 국내공급 및 수입은 감소할 것으로 예상된다. 이는 환경보호와 자원의 무기화 등으로 인해 국내외 원목가격이 인상될 것이라고 예상하였기 때문이다. 반면 폐재를 재활용하는 파티클보드와 목재칩을 원료로 이용하는 펄프의 경우 전체적인 공급은 늘어날 것으로 전망된다.

Keywords

References

  1. Adams, D.M. and Haynes, R.W. 1980. The 1980 softwood timber assessment market model: Structure, projections, and policy simulations. Forest Science Monograph 22.
  2. Adams, D.M. and Haynes, R.W. 1989. A model of national forest timber supply and stumpage markets in the Western United States. Forest Science 35(2): 401-424.
  3. Buongiorno, J., Shushuai, Zhu, Dali, Zhang, James, Turner, and Tomberlin, D. 2003. The Global Forest Products Model. Academic Press, San Diego.
  4. Global Timber. www.globaltimber.or.uk.
  5. Jang, W.-W. and Seok, H.-D. 1993. "A study on the Demand Outlook for Timber by Application", Journal of Rural Economics 16(3): 69-85.
  6. Joo, R. W. and Lee, S. Y. 1998. "Development of an Econometric Model to Project Trends in Forest Products Markets in the Republic of Korea", Journal of Forest Science 58: 72-92.
  7. Kim, J.S. and Ho, T.P. 1980. "Study on the Long-Term Demand Projections for Timber in Korea", Journal of Korean Forestry Society 50: 29-35.
  8. Korea Forest Service. 2001-2011. Timber supply-demand plan.
  9. Korea Forest Service. 1985-2012. Statistical Yearbook of Forestry.
  10. Korea Forest Service. 2000-2012. Trade Statistics of Forestry Products.
  11. Korea International Trade Association. http://www.kita.net.
  12. Korean Statistical Information Service. http://www.kosis.kr.
  13. Korea Wood Panel Association. 1993-2012. Statistics of Plywood, PB & MDF.
  14. Lee, J.-M., Min, S.-H., Jeong, Y.-S., Kim, B.-W., Kim, J.-J., Lee, Y.-H. and Han, J.-M. 2012. Mid- & Long-Term Projection of korean Industry Considering An Aging Population. Research Report 2012-638. Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade.
  15. Lee, S.-M., Chang, C.-S., and Kim, K.-D. 2008. Modelling Supply-demand Structure and Outlook of Korean Timber. R573. Korea Rural Economic Institute.
  16. Lee, S.-M., Kim, K.-D., and Song, S.-H. 2013. The Supply and Demand Model and Outlook of Korean Forest Products. R706. Korea Rural Economic Institute.
  17. New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd. 1999. Study of Non-Tariff Measures in the Forest Products Sector. New Zealand Forest Research Institute Limited, Rotorua.
  18. Prestemon, J.P. and Buongiorno, J. 1996. The impact of NAFTA on U.S. and Canadian forest products exports to Mexico. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 26: 794-809. https://doi.org/10.1139/x26-089
  19. Perez-Garcia, J.M. 1994. An Analysis of Proposed Domestic Climate Warming Mitigation Program Impacts on the International Forest Products Market. CINTRAFOR Working Paper 50. University of Washington, Seattle.
  20. Statistics Korea. e-Nara. http://www.index.go.kr.
  21. Yum, S.C. 1993. An analysis of timber demand and supply in the Republic of Korea. Seoul National University.
  22. Youn, Y.-C. and Kim, E.-G. 1992. "A study on the Demand for Timber in South Korea - with an Emphasis on theLongterm Forests", Journal of Korean Forestry Society 81(2): 124-138.

Cited by

  1. A study on the supply-demand analysis and outlook for wood products vol.16, pp.10, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2015.16.10.6959
  2. Outlook of the timber supply to the wood industry buildup master plan vol.16, pp.3, 2015, https://doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2015.16.3.1715