Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management (품질경영학회지)

Korean Society for Quality Management (한국품질경영학회)
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Development of Prediction Model for Churn Agents -Comparing Prediction Accuracy Between Pattern Model and Matrix Model-

대리점 이탈예측모델 개발 - 동적모델(Pattern Model)과 정적모델(Matrix Model)의 예측적중률 비교 -

  • An, Bong-Rak (Department of Management, Graduate School, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Lee, Sae-Bom (Department of Management, Graduate School, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Roh, In-Sung (School of Management, Kyung Hee University) ;
  • Suh, Yung-Ho (School of Management, Kyung Hee University)
  • 안봉락 (경희대학교 대학원 경영학과) ;
  • 이새봄 (경희대학교 대학원 경영학과) ;
  • 노인성 (경희대학교 경영대학) ;
  • 서영호 (경희대학교 경영대학)
  • Received : 2014.05.07
  • Accepted : 2014.05.21
  • Published : 2014.06.30
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Abstract

Purpose: The Purpose of this study is to develop a model for predicting agent churn group in the cosmetics industry. We develope two models, pattern model and matrix model, which are compared regarding the prediction accuracy of churn agents. Finally, we try to conclude if there is statistically significant difference between two models by empirical study. Methods: We develop two models using the part of RFM(Recency, Frequency, Monetary) method which is one of customer segmentation method in traditional CRM study. In order to ensure which model can predict churn agents more precisely between two models, we used CRM data of cosmetics company A in China. Results: Pattern model and matrix model have been developed. we find out that there is statistically significant differences between two models regarding the prediction accuracy. Conclusion: Pattern model and matrix model predict churn agents. Although pattern model employed the trend of monetary mount for six months, matrix model that used the amount of sales per month and the duration of the employment is better than pattern model in prediction accuracy.

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References

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