Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management (품질경영학회지)

Korean Society for Quality Management (한국품질경영학회)
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Bayesian Reliability Estimation of a New Expendable Launch Vehicle

신규 개발하는 소모성 발사체의 베이지안 신뢰도 추정

  • Hong, Hyejin (Department of Industrial Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Kim, Kyungmee O. (Department of Industrial Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • Received : 2014.04.15
  • Accepted : 2014.04.28
  • Published : 2014.06.30
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Abstract

Purpose: This paper explains how to obtain the Bayes estimates of the whole launch vehicle and of a vehicle stage, respectively, for a newly developed expendable launch vehicle. Methods: We determine the parameters of the beta prior distribution using the upper bound of the 60% Clopper-Pearson confidence interval of failure probability which is calculated from previous launch data considering the experience of the developer. Results: Probability that a launch vehicle developed from an inexperienced developer succeeds in the first launch is obtained by about one third, which is much smaller than that estimated from the previous research. Conclusion: The proposed approach provides a more conservative estimate than the previous noninformative prior, which is more reasonable especially for the initial reliability of a new vehicle which is developed by an inexperienced developer.

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References

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