한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)

  • 제56권1호
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  • Pages.31-40
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  • 2014
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  • 1738-3692(pISSN)
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  • 2093-7709(eISSN)
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)
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우리나라 미래의 논 벼 생산량과 관개요구량 모델링

Modeling Future Yield and Irrigation Demand of Rice Paddy in Korea

  • 투고 : 2013.10.07
  • 심사 : 2013.12.16
  • 발행 : 2014.01.31
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초록

기후변화에 따른 기온상승과 강우패턴의 변화에 의한 농업의 취약성에 대한 연구는 주요 관심분야이다. 본 연구에서 기후변화가 한국의 2021~2040 (2030s), 2051~2070 (2060s) 및 2081~2100 (2090s)의 벼의 생산량과 관개요구량에 미치는 영향을 모의발생하여 분석 하였다. 세 가지 대표농도경로 (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCPs)에 대한 12개의 전지구 기후모형이 추정한 기후자료로부터 미래의 작물 물 요구량, 유효강우량, 관개요구량을 물수지 방법으로 계산하였다. Water Accounting Rice Model (WARM) 벼 작물모형을 보정하여 벼 생산량 추정에 이용하였다. 벼 생산량은 금세기 말에는 최대 40 %까지 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 생산량은 특히 경남과 충남지방에서 크게 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 생산량과 관개요구량의 시공간적인 불확실성을 분석한 바, 경북과 전남에서 2090s, RCP8.5때 불확실성이 가장 큰 것으로 나타났다. 미래에 일부 지역은 벼농사에 적합하지 않을 수도 있을 것으로 추정되었으며 기후변화 대응방안에 대한 연구가 필요할 것으로 판단된다.

키워드

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피인용 문헌

  1. Projection of Consumptive Use and Irrigation Water for Major Upland Crops using Soil Moisture Model under Climate Change vol.56, pp.5, 2014, https://doi.org/10.5389/KSAE.2014.56.5.077
  2. Regional-scale rice-yield estimation using stacked auto-encoder with climatic and MODIS data: a case study of South Korea pp.1366-5901, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/01431161.2018.1488291