한국농공학회논문집 (Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)

  • 제55권4호
  • /
  • Pages.73-82
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  • 2013
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  • 1738-3692(pISSN)
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  • 2093-7709(eISSN)
한국농공학회 (The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers)
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분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가

Flood Risk Assessment Based on Bias-Corrected RCP Scenarios with Quantile Mapping at a Si-Gun Level

  • 박지훈 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 생태조경.지역시스템공학부) ;
  • 강문성 (서울대학교 농업생명과학대학 조경.지역시스템공학부, 농업생명과학연구원) ;
  • 송인홍 (서울대학교 농업생명과학연구원)
  • 투고 : 2013.04.11
  • 심사 : 2013.06.27
  • 발행 : 2013.07.31
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초록

The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

키워드

참고문헌

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