한국수자원학회논문집 (Journal of Korea Water Resources Association)

  • 제46권6호
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  • Pages.569-583
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  • 2013
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  • 2799-8746(pISSN)
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  • 2799-8754(eISSN)
한국수자원학회 (Korea Water Resources Association)
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SWAT 모형을 이용한 미래 기후변화가 설마천 혼효림 유역의 증발산과 토양수분에 미치는 영향 평가

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Evapotranspiration and Soil Moisture in a Mixed Forest Catchment Using Spatially Calibrated SWAT Model

  • 안소라 (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과) ;
  • 박근애 (워싱턴대학교 사회환경공학과) ;
  • 장철희 (한국건설기술연구원 수자원연구실) ;
  • 김성준 (건국대학교 사회환경시스템공학과)
  • Ahn, So Ra (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University) ;
  • Park, Geun Ae (Dept. of Civil Environmental Engineering, University of Washington) ;
  • Jang, Cheol Hee (Water Resources Research Division, Korea Institute of Construction Technology) ;
  • Kim, Seong Joon (Dept. of Civil and Environmental System Engineering, Konkuk University)
  • 투고 : 2013.02.18
  • 심사 : 2013.03.11
  • 발행 : 2013.06.30
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초록

본 연구는 SWAT 모형을 이용하여 설마천 혼효림 유역(8.54 $km^2$)을 대상으로 RCP (AR5) 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 수문순환 영향을 평가하였다. 모형의 불확실성을 효과적으로 줄이기 위해 설마천 유역의 2007년부터 실측된 유량, 증발산량 및 토양수분을 이용하여 모형의 보정(2007~2008) 및 검증(2009~2010)을 수행하였다. 모형의 보정 및 검증결과 유출량의 $R^2$가 0.74~0.91로 분석되었고, 증발산량은 0.56~0.71, 토양수분은 0.45~0.71로 분석되어 토양수분으로부터 증발산이 발생하고 이로 인해 유출까지 영향을 미치는 물수지 현상을 잘 재현하고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 미래 기후자료로 AR5 RCP 4.5, 8.5 시나리오에 대한 모의결과 값을 이용하였고, 사용된 모델은 한반도 전망자료를 지역기후모델을 이용하여 역학적 상세화하여 기상청에서 제공하는 HadGEM3-RA 모형이며 오차 보정하여 사용하였다. 기후변화 시나리오 분석 결과 두가지 시나리오 모두 미래 기온은 $0.9{\sim}4.2^{\circ}C$ 상승하고, 강수량은 7.9~20.4% 증가하였다. 또한 미래 유출량은 0.6~15.7% 증가한 반면에 유출률은 3.8~5.4% 감소하였고, 증발산비는 4.1~6.8% 증가, 토양수분은 4.3~5.5% 감소하였다.

This study is to evaluate the future climate change impact on hydrological components in the Seolmacheon ($8.54km^2$) mixed forest catchment located in the northwest of South Korea using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. To reduce the uncertainty, the model was spatially calibrated (2007~2008) and validated (2009~2010) using daily observed streamflow, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture data. Hydrological predicted values matched well with the observed values by showing coefficient of determination ($R^2$) from 0.74 to 0.91 for streamflow, from 0.56 to 0.71 for evapotranspiration, and from 0.45 to 0.71 for soil moisture. The HadGEM3-RA future weather data of Representative Concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR5 (Assessment Report 5) were adopted for future assessment after bias correction of ground measured data. The future changes in annual temperature and precipitation showed an upward tendency from $0.9^{\circ}C$ to $4.2^{\circ}C$ and from 7.9% to 20.4% respectively. The future streamflow showed an increase from 0.6% to 15.7%, but runoff ratio showed a decrease from 3.8% to 5.4%. The future predicted evapotranspiration about precipitation increased from 4.1% to 6.8%, and the future soil moisture decreased from 4.3% to 5.5%.

키워드

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