Journal of Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회논문집)

Korea Water Resources Association (한국수자원학회)
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Analysis of Non-monotonic Phenomena of Resilience and Vulnerability in Water Resources Systems

수자원시스템의 회복도 및 취약도 증감현상 해석

  • Lee, Gwang-Man (Korea Institute of Water & Environment, Kwater) ;
  • Cha, Kee-Uk (Department of Water Resources Business) ;
  • Yi, Jaeeung (Department of Civil Engineering, Ajou University)
  • 이광만 (Kwater, Kwater연구원) ;
  • 차기욱 (Kwater, 수자원사업처, 수자원계획팀) ;
  • 이재응 (아주대학교 건설시스템공학과)
  • Received : 2012.08.02
  • Accepted : 2012.10.12
  • Published : 2013.02.28
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Abstract

Selecting the evaluation index to determine water resources system design yield is an important problem for water resources engineers. Reliability, resilience and vulnerability are three widely used indices for yield analysis. However, there is an overlap region between indices as well as resilience and vulnerability can show improvement in non-monotonic phenomena although yield condition becomes worse. These problems are usually not recognized and the decisions are made according to calculated estimates in real situation. The reason for this is caused by a diverse characteristics of water resources system such as seasonal variability of hydrologic characteristics and water demands. In this study, the applicability of resilience and vulnerability for multi indices application in addition to reliability which is applied generally is examined. Based on highly seasonal irrigation water demand ratio, the correlation and non-monotonic phenomena of each index are analyzed for seven selected reservoirs. Yongdam reservoir which supplies constant water supply showed the general tendency, but Chungju, Andong, Namgang and other reservoirs which supplies irrigation water showed clear non-monotonic phenomena in resilience and vulnerability.

수자원시스템의 설계공급량을 결정하기 위한 평가지표의 선택은 수자원기술자가 직면한 중요한 문제이다. 대부분 신뢰도, 회복도 그리고 취약도를 대상으로 평가하게 된다. 그러나 각 지표 간에는 중복성이 있고 회복도와 취약도는 용수공급 여건이 나빠져도 개선되는 증감현상이 나타날 수 있다. 실제 적용에서는 이와 같은 문제점을 인지하지 못하고 한번 계산된 추정치로 판단하는 경우가 대부분이다. 이런 현상에 대한 원인은 수자원시스템의 다양한 특성에 의해 나타나고 있는데 수문 및 수요의 계절적 변동성이 대표적이다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라 댐 설계시 일반적으로 적용하고 있는 신뢰도 지표에 추가하여 다기준 적용을 위한 회복도 및 취약도의 적용성을 분석하였다. 분석방법은 계절적 변동성이 큰 농업용수의 구성비율을 기준으로 7개댐을 선정하여 각 지표 간 상관성과 증감현상을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, 연중 일정량을 공급하는 용담댐은 일반적 추세를 보였으나 농업용수를 공급하는 충주, 안동 및 남강댐 등은 회복도와 취약도에서 증감현상이 뚜렷이 나타났다.

Keywords

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