주택재개발 정비사업 기획단계에서의 수익성예측 모델

A Profitability Model at Early Phase of Housing Reconstruction Project

A judgement based on the redevelopment projects' predicted profitability is an important aspect in making decisions towardthe success of the redevelopment projects. For the profitability of a redevelopment project, it is necessary to come up with a risk analysis based on surveys and study of literatures in order to minimize the risk factors that could affect profitability. It is also necessary to come up with predicted profitability based on the business value of the redevelopment project during the production phase according to the results of the risk analysis. In order to prevent the growing difficulties in executing the projects, a profitability prediction model is proposed using the method of management and disposal based on a proportional calculation that can estimate the share of expenses in order to judge profitability during the production phase. A profitability prediction model is verified by applyingthe profitability prediction model that uses the management and disposal method on the given cases. With the improvement of profitability prediction processes and models, it is possible to appropriately judge profitability during the production phase in order to allow the prevention of suspension, reduction of project term, reduction of cost, and making of rational decisions.