The Journal of the Korea Contents Association (한국콘텐츠학회논문지)

The Korea Contents Association (한국콘텐츠학회)
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Evaluating the Items Derived from Technology Foresight

기술예측결과로 도출된 아이템의 재평가 방법

  • Received : 2012.10.11
  • Accepted : 2012.11.14
  • Published : 2012.12.28
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Abstract

Many organizations release future emerging technologies information because it is very important to companies. However, unfortunately there are few organizations who assess the emerging technologies they thought a few years ago. We made a framework for assessing the brightness of future emerging technologies rapidly and cost-effectively. We came up with 2 new concepts for it. One is product potential and the other is consumption potential. Product potential is relative probability that emerging technology is implemented to real products. It is resulted from analyzing patents related with emerging technology. Consumption potential is relative probability that consumers buy the products. The number of appearances of emerging technology in the mass media is related to consumption potential. We compared the brightness between LED and LCD technologies with proposed evaluating framework, and came to know that LCD has more brightness over LED.

미래유망기술은 그 중요성으로 인해 국내외 유수의 기관에서 발표를 하고 있지만 이에 대한 후행평가는 거의 없는 실정이다. 잘못된 정보는 큰 시행착오를 초래하게 되므로, R&D 기획 단계에서 과거에 발표되었던 유망기술을 한 번 더 확인하는 작업은 필요하다. 따라서, 본 논문에서 제안한 평가 프레임워크가 과거 발표된 미래유망기술에 대해 신속하고, 시간과 비용 측면에서 효율적인 평가방법을 제공할 것으로 기대한다. 이를 위해 본 논문에서는 제품화가능성과 구매가능성의 개념을 도입하였다. 각각 특허와 뉴스 정보를 근거로 측정되는 것으로, 제품화가능성은 유망기술이 관련 응용 제품으로 구현될 가능성을 계량화한 것이고, 구매가능성은 소비자들이 응용 제품을 구매할 가능성을 수치화한 것이다. 제안된 평가프레임워크를 설명하기 위하여 LED와 LCD를 비교했하였고, 그 결과 평가시점(2011년)에서의 유망성은 LCD가 LED에 비해 높은 것으로 나타났다. 이는 시장보고서의 결과와 일치한다.

Keywords

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