대한지리학회지 (Journal of the Korean Geographical Society)

대한지리학회 (The Korean Geographical Society)
권호 표지

기후 변화의 생태계 영향에 대한 ABMS 연구 -빙하감소와 북극곰의 모의실험을 바탕으로-

Analysis of the Ecological Impact of Climate Change using ABMS: A Case Study of Polar Bears and Glacier

  • 투고 : 2011.06.14
  • 심사 : 2011.06.28
  • 발행 : 2011.06.30
PDF 다운로드
⟨ 이전 논문 다음 논문 ⟩

초록

최근 기후 변화에 따른 생태계의 변화에 대한 연구가 활발히 이루어지고 있다. 본 연구는 생태계 연구에 새로운 연구방법으로서 행위자 기반 모델(ABMS)을 소개하고, 사례연구를 통해 이 분야에 대한 활용 가능성을 제안하고자 한다. ABMS의 활용 가능성을 제안 평가하기 위하여, 기후 변화로 인한 빙하의 감소와 그에 따른 북극곰의 멸종 위기에 대해서 에이전트기반의 모형을 수립하고 모의실험을 실행하였다. 연구 결과는 중요 변수 간 상호작용에 신뢰할 만한 일관성을 발견할 수 있었다. 이러한 연구 결과는 제안한 빙하-북극곰 모델이 환경 변화에 따른 북극곰 멸종 시기 예측에 기여할 것을 기대할 수 있게 한다. 이에 따라, ABMS는 생태계의 다양한 변화 과정의 분석 일반에 적용이 가능할 것을 기대할 수 있다.

It has actively advanced to study the impact of climate change on ecosystem. This study addresses ABMS (Agent Based Modeling and Simulation) as a methodology of ecosystem research. ABMS would suggest the possibility of practical use in this sector. This study would investigate how the melting speed of glacier in the arctic influences the extinction period of polar bears. The Polar Bears and Glacier Model in this study is expected to contribute to accurate prediction of the polar bear's extinction period. The suggested ABMS could also be applied to the study of various factors of ecosystem in general.

키워드

참고문헌

  1. A. S. Fischbach, S. C., Amstrup, D. C. Douglas, 2007, Landward and eastward shift of Alaskan polar bear denning associated with recent sea ice changes, Polar Biology, Volume: 30, Issue 11, 1395-1405. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-007-0300-4
  2. Ashleigh E. Crompton, Martyn E. Obbard, Stephen D. Petersen, Paul J. Wilson, 2008, Population genetic structure in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Hudson Bay, Canada:, Biological Conservation, Volume 141, Issue 10, 2528-2539. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2008.07.018
  3. Allison L. Perry, Paula J. Low, Jim R. Ellis, John D. Reynolds, 2005, Climate Change and Distribution Shifts in Marine Fishes, Science New Series, 308(5730), 1912-1915.
  4. Berger, T.,2001, Agent-Based Spatial Models Applied to Agriculture: A Simulation Tool for Technology Diffusion, Resource Use Changes and Policy Analysis, Agricultural Economics, 25, 245-260. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1574-0862.2001.tb00205.x
  5. Charles M. Macal, Michael J. North, 2006, Tutorial on Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation Part 2: How to Model with Agents, Proceedings of the 2006.
  6. Charles M. Macal, Michael J. North, 2009, Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation: desktop ABMS, Proceedings of the 2007 Winter Simulation Conference.
  7. Fowler, C., W. J. Emery, J. Maslanik, 2004, Satellitederived evolution of Arctic sea ice age: October 1978 to March 2003, IEEE Geosci, Remote Sensing Letters, 1(2), 71-74. https://doi.org/10.1109/LGRS.2004.824741
  8. Hong, J. H., Kang, J. B., Choi, J. M., 2006, Efficient Reinforcement Learning System in Multi-Agent Environment, The Korean Institute of Information Scientists and Engineers: Journal of the great autumn Conference, 33(2-B).1-603 (in Korean).
  9. Kim, J.-S., Han, B.-H., Kwak, J.-I., 2010, Relationship between the Distribution of Wildbirds and Temperature for Six Years ?A Case Study of Worldcup Park in Seoul, Korea-, Korean journal of environment and ecology, 24(3), 227-234 (in Korean).
  10. Kim, K. Y., 2002, Historical Reflections on the Social and Culture Background of Ecology, The Korean History of Science Society, 24(1) (in Korean).
  11. Kong, W.-S., Lee, S. G., Park, H. N., 2009, Species distribution which vulnerable to climate change and temperature, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 15-16 (in Korean).
  12. Lee, S. H., Heo, I. H., Lee, K. M., Kim, S. Y., Lee, Y. S., Kwon, W.-T., 2008, Impacts of Climate Change on Phenology and Growth of Crops: In the Case of Naju, Journal of the Korean Geographical Society, 43(1), 20-35 (in Korean).
  13. Min, B. W., 2006, Order out of Uncertainties: The Complex Systems Theory and International Relations, Journal of The Korean Political Science Association, 40(1), 201-221 (in Korean).
  14. Oystein Wiig, Jon Aars, Erik W. Born, 2008, Effects of climate change on polar bears, 2008 Science Progress, 91(2), 151-173.
  15. Peter Lemke, Jiawen Ren, 2007, Observations: Changes in Snow, Ice and Frozen Ground, Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
  16. Thomas G. Smith, 1980, Polar bear predation of ringed and bearded seals in the land-fast sea ice habitat, Canadian Journal of Zoology, 58: 2201-2209. https://doi.org/10.1139/z80-302
  17. Thomas Stocker, Qin Dahe, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Melinda Tignor, Pauline Midgley, 2010, IPCC Expert Meeting on Assessing and Combining Multi Model Climate Projections National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado, USA.
  18. Thomas Stocker, Qin Dahe, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Melinda Tignor, Simon Allen, Pauline Midgley, 2010, IPCC Workshop on Sea Level Rise and Ice Sheet Instabilities Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Workshop Report.
  19. Torrens, P. M. and Alberti, M, 2000, "Measuring sprawl", CASA Working Paper 27, University College London, Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis.
  20. Torrens, P. M., 2006, Simulating sprawl, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 96(2): 248-275. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8306.2006.00477.x
  21. Torrens, P. M., 2006, Urban simulation at the microlevel, Autodesk, Inc.
  22. Marco Janssen, Bert de Vries, 1988, The battle of perspectives: a multi-agent model with adaptive responses to climate change, Ecological Economics, Volume 26, Issue 1, 43-65.
  23. Maslanik J. A., C. Fowler, J. Stroeve, S. Drobot, J. Zwally, D. Yi, W. Emery, 2007, A younger, thinner Arctic ice cover: Increased potential for rapid, extensive sea-ice loss, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L24501 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032043
  24. Michael Woodridge, 2002, An Introduction to MultiAgent System, John Wiley & Sons. LTD.
  25. Richard T. T. Forman, Lauren E. Alexander, 1998, Roads and Their Major Ecological Effects, Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 29, 207-231 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.29.1.207
  26. R. W. Macdonald, T. Harner, J. Fyfe, 2005, Recent climate change in the Arctic and its impact on contaminant pathways and interpretation of temporal trend data, Science of The Total Environment, Volume 342, Issues 1-3, 5-86. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2004.12.059
  27. Wada, M., Ashuma, k., Kaminuma, K., Yatanabe, G., Azo, D., 2009, The Question of the Antarctic and the Arctic, Purungil (in Korean).