DOI QR코드

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강우빈도해석에서 Bootstrap을 이용한 확률분포의 매개변수 추정에 대한 불확실성 해석

Uncertainty Analysis for Parameter Estimation of Probability Distribution in Rainfall Frequency Analysis Using Bootstrap

  • Seo, Young-Min (Department of Civil Engineering, Yeungnam University) ;
  • Park, Ki-Bum (Department of Railroad and Civil Engineering, Dongyang University)
  • 투고 : 2010.09.27
  • 심사 : 2011.01.13
  • 발행 : 2011.03.31

초록

Bootstrap methods is the computer-based resampling method that estimates the standard errors and confidence intervals of summary statistics using the plug-in principle for assessing the accuracy or uncertainty of statistical estimates, and the BCa method among the Bootstrap methods is known much superior to other Bootstrap methods in respect of the standards of statistical validation. Therefore this study suggests the method of the representation and treatment of uncertainty in flood risk assessment and water resources planning from the construction and application of rainfall frequency analysis model considersing the uncertainty based on the nonparametric BCa method among the Bootstrap methods for the assessement of the estimation of probability rainfall and the effect of uncertainty considering the uncertainty of the parameter estimation of probability in the rainfall frequency analysis that is the most fundamental in flood risk assessement and water resources planning.

키워드

참고문헌

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  2. 서영민, 지홍기, 이순탁, 2009b, 강우빈도분석에서 확률분포형의 매개변수 추정시 불확실성 해석에 대한 Bootstap 기법의 적용, 대한토목학회 학술발표회 초록집, 65.
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피인용 문헌

  1. Analysis of Intensity-Duration-Quantity (IDQ) Curve for Designing Flood Retention Basin vol.47, pp.1, 2014, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2014.47.1.83
  2. Assessment of uncertainty associated with parameter of gumbel probability density function in rainfall frequency analysis vol.49, pp.5, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3741/JKWRA.2016.49.5.411