DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Distribution by the Climate Change Scenarios

기후변화 시나리오에 따른 산림분포 취약성 평가

  • Lee, Sangchul (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Choi, Sungho (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Lee, Woo-Kyun (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Park, Taejin (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University) ;
  • Oh, Suhyun (Department of Climatic Environment, Korea University) ;
  • Kim, Su-Na (Division of Environment Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University)
  • 이상철 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 최성호 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 이우균 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 박태진 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과) ;
  • 오수현 (고려대학교 기후환경학과) ;
  • 김순아 (고려대학교 환경생태공학과)
  • Received : 2011.03.04
  • Accepted : 2011.04.11
  • Published : 2011.06.30

Abstract

This study was aiming at assessing the vulnerability of forest distribution by the A2 and B1 climate change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The vulnerability of forest distribution was assessed using its sensitivity and adaptation to climate change with the help of the simulations of Korean-specific forest distribution model, so-called the Thermal Analogy Group (TAG), and the Plant Functional Type (PFT) defined in the HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups) model. As a result, the vulnerable area occupied 30.78% and 2.81% of Korea in A2 and B1 scenario, respectively. When it comes to the administrative districts, Pusan in A2 and Daegu in B1 appeared the most vulnerable area. This study would be employed into preparation of adaptative measures for forest in future in terms of using climate change scenarios reflecting different future development conditions.

본 연구에서는 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) 기후변화 시나리오 A2와 B1에 따른 산림분포 취약성을 평가하였다. 산림분포 취약성은 한국형 산림 생태계 분포 모델 Thermal Analogy Groups(TAG) 의 산림분포예측 방법과 Hydrology Thermal Analogy Groups(HyTAG)에서 정의한 식생유형을 이용하여 기후 변화에 따른 잠재 식물상(Plant Functional Type: PFT)의 분포 변화를 기후변화 민감성과 적응성으로 나누어 평가되었다. 그 결과, 산림분포가 취약한 지역의 면적은 A2 시나리오에서 전체 국토 면적의 30.78%, B1에서는 2.81%로 나타났다. 행정구역별 취약성 평가 결과는 부산이 A2 시나리오에서 가장 취약하고 대구가 B1 시나리오에서 가장 큰 취약성을 나타냈다. 미래 발전 방향에 따라서 상이하게 구축된 시나리오 별 산림 분포 취약성 결과는 앞으로 산림 분야 적응대책 수립에 중요한 자료로 이용될 것이다.

Keywords

References

  1. 공우석. 2005. 지구온난화에 취약한 지표식물 선정. 한국기상학회지 41(2-1): 263-273.
  2. 김재욱과 이동근. 2006. 지역기후모형을 이용한 산림식생의 취약성 평가에 관한 연구. 한국환경복원녹화기술학회지 9(5): 32-40.
  3. 박종철, 양금철, 장동호. 2010. 기후변화에 따른 난온대 상록활엽수림대의 이동에 관한 연구. 기후연구 5(1): 29-41.
  4. 유가영, 김인애. 2008. 기후변화 취약성 평가 지표 개발 및 도입방안. 한국환경정책평가연구원 연구보고서.
  5. 윤여창, 차준희. 2007. 기후변화협약 대응을 위한 산림 부문의 역할과 경기도의 대응. 경기논단 9(4): 117-140.
  6. 윤진일, 최재연, 안재훈. 2001. 일별 국지기온 결정에 미치는 관측지점 표고영향의 계절변동. 한국농림기상학회지 3(2): 99-104.
  7. 임종환, 신준환. 2005. 지구온난화에 따른 산림식생대 이동과 식물계절 변화. 자연보존 130: 8-17.
  8. 최종근. 2007. 지구통계학. 시그마프레스. 서울.
  9. Bachelet, D., Lenihan, J.M., Daly, C., Neilson, R.P., Ojima, D.S. and Parton, W.J. 2001. MC1: A Dynamic Vegetation Model for Estimating the Distribution of Vegetation and associated Carbon, Nutrients, and Water-Technical Documentation. Version 1.0. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.
  10. Choi, S., Lee, W.K., Kwak, H.B., Yoo, S., Choi, H.A., Park, S. and Lim, J.H., 2010a. Vulnerability Assessment of Forest Ecosystem to Climate Change in Korea using MC1 model. Journal of Forest Planning. (In press)
  11. Choi, S., Lee, W.K., Son, Y., Yoo, S. and Lim, J.H., 2010b. Changes in the Distribution of South Korean Forest Vegetation simulated using Thermal Gradient Indices. Science in China Series C-Life Sciences 53(7): 784-797. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-010-4025-1
  12. Choi, S., Lee, W.K., Kwak, D.A., Lee, S.C., Lim, J.H. and Saborowski, J. 2010c. Predicting Forest Cover Changes in Future Climate using Hydrological and Thermal Indices in Korea. Climate Research. (In review)
  13. IPCC. 2000. IPCC Special Report Emission Scenario. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  14. IPCC. 2001. Climate change 2001. The scientific basis. Contributions of Working group to the Third Assessment Report of the Governmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  15. IPCC. 2007a. In: Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M., Miller, H.L. (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA. pp. 996.
  16. IPCC. 2007c. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Group I, and to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 104.
  17. Kira T. 1945. A new Classification of Climate in Eastern Asia as the basis for Agricultural Geography. Horticultural Institute. Kyoto Univ, Kyoto.
  18. Lee, M.A., Lee, W.K., Son, Y., Cho, Y.S., Song, C.C., Kim, T.M., Yu, L. and Tao, B. 2007. Sensitivity and Adaptability of Vegetation and Soil Carbon Storage to Climate Change with CEVSA Model in Korea. A3 Foresight Program. Proceeding.
  19. Min, S.K., Park, E.H. and Kwon, W.T. 2004. Future Projections of East Asian Climate Change from Multi-AOGCM ensembles of IPCC SRES Scenario Simulations. Journal of the Meteorolgical Society of Japan 82: 1187-1211. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2004.1187
  20. Neilson, R.P. 1995. A Model for Predicting Continental- Scale Vegetation Distribution and Water Balance. Ecological Applications 5(2): 362-385. https://doi.org/10.2307/1942028
  21. Watanabe, T., Yokozawa, M., Emori, S., Takata, K., Sumida, A. and Hara, T. 2004. Developing a Multilayered Integrated Numerical Model of Surface Physics-Growing Plants Interaction (MINoSGI). Global Change Biology 10: 963-982. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1529-8817.2003.00768.x
  22. Yim, Y.J. 1977. Distribution of Forest Vegetation and Climate in the Korean Peninsula III. Distribution of Tree Species Along the Thermal Gradient. Japanese Journal of Ecology 27: 177-189.
  23. Yu, L. 2006. Assessment the Vulnerability of Natural Ecosystem to Climate Change in China. Ph.D thesis, Chinese Academy of Science.