Estimation of Income Distribution for Domestic Grape-producing Farms Based on the Subjective Simulation Process

주관적 모의실험을 기반으로 한 국내 포도농가의 소득 분포 추정

Decision-makings or the related policies regarding domestic grape production heavily depends upon the known market price data and official statistics periodically announced by government, at national level. However, usual adaption of the 'simple means' from these data may bring seriously biased decision-makings when the original data are biased, especially when the data are not convinced to be normal distributions to decision makers. In this regards, this study employs Monte Carlo simulation technique to overcome the limitations, based on the decision makers' subjective assumptions on the known data, and, tries to come up with flexible range of business information regarding grape-producing farm income. The approach used in this study also provides possibility that it may be useful when adapting subjective assumptions from various statistical distributions.