Evaluation of Ensemble Approach for O₃ and PM_2.5 Simulation

Inter-comparison of chemical transport models (CTMs) was conducted among four modeling research groups. Model performance of the ensemble approach to $O_3$ and $PM_{2.5}$ simulation was evaluated by using observational data with a time resolution of 1 or 6 hours at four sites in the Kanto area, Japan, in summer 2007. All groups applied the Community Multiscale Air Quality model. The ensemble average of the four CTMs reproduced well the temporal variation of $O_3$ (r=0.65-0.85) and the daily maximum $O_3$ concentration within a factor of 1.3. By contrast, it underestimated $PM_{2.5}$ concentrations by a factor of 1.4-2, and did not reproduce the $PM_{2.5}$ temporal variation at two suburban sites (r=~0.2). The ensemble average improved the simulation of ${SO_4}^{2-}$, ${NO_3}^-$, and ${NH_4}^+$, whose production pathways are well known. In particular, the ensemble approach effectively simulated ${NO_3}^-$, despite the large variability among CTMs (up to a factor of 10). However, the ensemble average did not improve the simulation of organic aerosols (OAs), underestimating their concentrations by a factor of 5. The contribution of OAs to $PM_{2.5}$ (36-39%) was large, so improvement of the OA simulation model is essential to improve the $PM_{2.5}$ simulation.