Korean Management Science Review (경영과학)

The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society (한국경영과학회)
권호 표지

Application of the Delphi Technique in Modifying AHP Method

Delphi를 사용한 AHP방법론에 관한 연구

  • 송성환 (성균관대학교 산업공학과) ;
  • 권성훈 (성균관대학교 기술경영학과) ;
  • 박진범 (성균관대학교 기술경영학과) ;
  • 홍순기 (성균관대학교 시스템경영공학과)
  • Published : 2009.03.31
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

AHP is widely used in various fields owing to its simplicity and clarity. However, it has the problems of reliability of panel's judgement and the assumption that each panelist's ability is equal. In this paper, we propose a reliable AHP method using Delphi technique, which aims to incorporate the relative expertise of panel and to increase their consensus. The method is called the Modified Delphi-AHP. We apply the method to analyzing the demand for lectures of Management of Technology.

Keywords

References

  1. 김재범, 조용곤, 조근태, 김윤배, 'AHP 9점척도의 한계를 극복한 새로운 일관성기준 개발', 대한산업공학회/한국경영과학회 2004 춘계학술대회, 2004
  2. 이인성, '수치변환척도 및 단순화 방식 적용에 따른 계층분석과정(AHP)의 일관도 및 정확도의 분석', 대한국토.도시계획학회, (1998), pp.347-362
  3. 이동운, 김영수, 'Fuzzy-AHP와 Fuzzy-Delphi 기법을 이용한 건설프로젝트의 의사결정 모델에 관한 연구', '한국건설관리학회 논문집', 제4권, 제1호(2003), pp.81-89
  4. 조근태, '기술대안의 전략적 평가를 위한 AHP 적용에 있어서 평가자 신뢰성을 고려한 가중치 통합', '경영과학', 제19권 제2호(2002), 139-153
  5. 조근태, 조용곤, 강현수, ‘앞서가는 리더들의 계층분석적 의사결정’, 동현출판사, 2003
  6. 홍순기, 신홍식, 박수동, ‘기술예측’, 한국산업기술재단, 2007
  7. Alison Hubbard Ashton, 'Does consensus imply accuracy in accounting studies of dicision making?,' Accounting Review, Vol.60, No.2(1985), pp.l73-185
  8. Belton, V., 'A comparison of the analytic hierarchy process and a simple multi-attribute value function,' European Journal of Operational Research, Vol.26, No.1(1986), pp.7-21 https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(86)90155-4
  9. Belton, V. and T. Gear, 'On a short-coming of Saaty's method of analytic hierarchies,' Omega, Vol. 11, No.3(1983), pp.228-230 https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(83)90047-6
  10. Che-Wei Chang, Cheng-Ru Wu, and Huang-Chu Chen, 'Using expert technology to select unstable slicing machine to control wafer slicing quality via fuzzy AHP,' Expert 63 Systems with Applications, Vol.34, No.3(2008), pp.2210-2220 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2007.02.042
  11. Chung-Ru Wu, Chin-Tsai Lin, and Huang-Chu Chen, 'Optimal selection of location for Taiwanese hospitals to ensure a competitive advantage by using the analytic hierarchy process and sensitivity analysis,' Building and Environment, Vol.42, No.3(2007), pp.1431-1444 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2005.12.016
  12. Dyer, J.S., 'Remarks on the analytic hierarchy process,' Management Science, Vol.36(1990), pp.249-258 https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.36.3.249
  13. Fred Woudenberg, 'An evaluation of Delphi,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.40, No.2(1991), pp.131-150 https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(91)90002-W
  14. Kamenetzeky, RD., 'The relationship between the analytic hierarchy process and the additive value function,' Decision Science, Vol.13(1982), pp.702-713 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1982.tb01900.x
  15. Kim Quaile Hill and Jib Fowles, 'The methodological worth of the Delphi forecasting technique,' Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.7, No.2(1975), pp.179-192 https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(75)90057-8
  16. Pi-Fang Hsu, Cheng-Ru Wu, and Zhao-Rong Li, 'Optimizing resource-based allocation for senior for senior citizen housing to ensure a competitive advantage using the analytic hierarchy process,' Building and Environment, Vol.43(2008), pp.90-97 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2006.11.028
  17. Ramanathan, R. and L.S. Ganesh, 'Group preference aggregation methods employed in AHP: An evaluation and an intrinsic process for deriving members' weightages,' European Journal of Operational Research, Vol. 79, No.2(1994), pp.249-265 https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(94)90356-5
  18. Saaty, T.L., 'Rank generation, preservation, and reversal in the Analytic Hierarchy Process,' Decision Science, Vol.18(1987), pp.157-177 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5915.1987.tb01514.x
  19. Schenkennan, S., 'Avoiding rank reversal in AHP decision support models,' European journal of Operational Research, Vol.74, No.3 (1994), pp.407-419 https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(94)90220-8
  20. Tavana, M, D.T. Kennedy, and P. Joglekar, 'A Group Decision Support Framework for Consensus Ranking of Technical Manager Candidates,' Moega, Vol.24, No.5(1996), pp. 523-538 https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(96)00030-8
  21. Tsaia, M. and C. Sub, 'Political risk assessment of five East Asians ports-the viewpoints of global carriers,' Marine Policy, Vol.29, No.4(2005), pp.291-298 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2004.04.003
  22. Van Den Honert, R.C. and FA Lootsrna, 'Group preference aggregation in the multiplicative AHP The model of the group decision process and Pareto optimality,' European journal of Operational Research, Vol.96, No.2(1996), pp.363-370 https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(95)00345-2
  23. Victor A. Banuls and Jose L. Aslmeron, 'A Scenario-Based Assessment Model-SBAM,' Technological Forecasting and Social change, Vol.74, No.6(2007), pp.750-762 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.015
  24. Victor A. Banuls and Jose L. Salmeron, 'Foresighting key areas in the Information Technology industry,' Technovation, Vol.28, No.3(2008), pp.103-111 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.technovation.2007.05.006
  25. Vincent S. Lai, Bo K. Wong, Waiman Cheung, 'Group decision making in a multiple criteria environment: A case using the AHP in software selection,' European journal of Operational Research, Vol.137, No.1 (2002), pp.134 -144 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00084-4
  26. Watson, S.R. and A. Freeling, 'Assessing attribute weights,' Omega, Vol.10(1982), pp. 582-585 https://doi.org/10.1016/0305-0483(82)90061-5
  27. Weber, M and K, Borcherding, 'Behavioral influences on weight judgement in multiattribute decision making,' European journal of Operational Research, Vol.67, No.1 (1993), pp.1-12 https://doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(93)90318-H
  28. Yong-Gon Cho and Keun-Tae Cho, 'A loss function approach to group preference aggregation in the AHP,' Computers and Operations Research, Vol.35, No.3(2008), pp.884-892 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cor.2006.04.008
  29. Zhanga, B., Y. Zhanga, D. Chenb, R.E. Whiteb, and Y. Lib, 'A quantitative evaluation system of soil productivity for intensive agriculture in China,' Geoderma, Vol.123(2004), pp.319-331 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2004.02.015