Management Science and Financial Engineering

  • 제14권2호
  • /
  • Pages.89-104
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  • 2008
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  • 2287-2043(pISSN)
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  • 2287-2361(eISSN)
한국경영과학회 (The Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society)
권호 표지

On Parameter Estimation of Growth Curves for Technological Forecasting by Using Non-linear Least Squares

  • Ko, Young-Hyun (Insight Team, Samsung Card Corp.) ;
  • Hong, Seung-Pyo (IT Statistics Analysis Team, Institute of Information Technology Advancement) ;
  • Jun, Chi-Hyuck (Department of Industrial and Management Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology)
  • 발행 : 2008.11.30
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초록

Growth curves including Bass, Logistic and Gompertz functions are widely used in forecasting the market demand. Nonlinear least square method is often adopted for estimating the model parameters but it is difficult to set up the starting value for each parameter. If a wrong starting point is selected, the result may lead to erroneous forecasts. This paper proposes a method of selecting starting values for model parameters in estimating some growth curves by nonlinear least square method through grid search and transformation into linear regression model. Resealing the market data using the national economic index makes it possible to figure out the range of parameters and to utilize the grid search method. Application to some real data is also included, where the performance of our method is demonstrated.

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참고문헌

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