Economic and Environmental Geology (자원환경지질)

The Korean Society of Economic and Environmental Geology (대한자원환경지질학회)
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A Modified Logistic Regression Model for Probabilistic Prediction of Debris Flow at the Granitic Rock Area and Its Application; Landslide Prediction Map of Gangreung Area

화강암질암지역 토석류 산사태 예측을 위한 로지스틱 회귀모델의 수정 및 적용 - 강릉지역을 대상으로

  • Cho, Yong-Chan (Geological & Environ. Hazards Division, Korea Inst. of Geoscience and Mineral Res.(KIGAM)) ;
  • Chae, Byung-Gon (Geological & Environ. Hazards Division, Korea Inst. of Geoscience and Mineral Res.(KIGAM)) ;
  • Kim, Won-Young (Geological & Environ. Hazards Division, Korea Inst. of Geoscience and Mineral Res.(KIGAM)) ;
  • Chang, Tae-Woo (Dept. of Geology, Kyungpook National University)
  • 조용찬 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부) ;
  • 채병곤 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부) ;
  • 김원영 (한국지질자원연구원 지질환경재해연구부) ;
  • 장태우 (경북대학교 지질학과)
  • Published : 2007.02.28
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Abstract

This study proposed a modified logistic regression model for a probabilistic prediction of debris flow on natural terrain at the granitic rock area. The modified model dose not contain any categorical factors that were used in the previous model and secured higher reliability of prediction than that of the previous one. The modified model is composed of lithology, two factors of geomorphology, and three factors of soil property. Verification result shows that the prediction reliability is more than 86%. Using the modified regression model, the landslide prediction maps were established. In case of Sacheon area, the prediction map showed that the landslide occurrence was not well corresponded with the model since, even though the forest-fred area was distributed on the center of the model, no factors were considered for the landslide predictions. On the other hand, the prediction model was well corresponded with landslide occurrence at Jumunjin-Yeongok area. The prediction model developed in this study has very high availability to employ in other granitic areas.

본 연구는 화강암질암 지역의 자연사면에서 발생하는 토석류 산사태의 발생지점을 확률론적 예측하기 위하여 기 개발된 로지스틱 회귀모델을 수정하고자 한다. 기 모델의 단점인 일부 범주형 변수사용을 제거하여 예측률의 신뢰도 및 예측도면 작성시의 정확성을 높인 새로운 예측모델을 제안하고자 한다. 새롭게 개발된 모델은 암상, 지형인자 2개 및 토질인자 3개를 사용하여 통계적으로 86%이상의 예측률을 확보하였다. 본 모델의 적용성을 검증하기 위하여 태풍 '루사'로 인해 산사태가 집중적으로 발생한 강릉지역에 적용하여 산사태 예측도를 작성하였다. 예측결과 사천지역의 경우 본 모델에서 고려하지 못한 산불의 영향으로 산불피해지역에서 근소한 차이를 보여주고 있으나, 주문진-연곡지역의 경우는 예측결과가 실제 산사태 발생위치와 잘 일치하고 있다. 따라서 본 모델은 우리나라의 화강암질암지역에 적용하여 널리 활용될 수 있을것으로 판단된다.

Keywords

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