A Study on Long-Term Spatial Load Forecasting Using Trending Method

추세분석법에 의한 영역의 장기 수요예측

  • 황갑주 (울산대 전기전자정보시스템공학부) ;
  • 최수근 (울산대 대학원 전기공학과)
  • Published : 2004.11.01

Abstract

This paper suggests a long-term distribution area load forecasting algorithm which offers basic data for distribution planning of power system. To build forecasting model, 4-level hierarchical spatial structure is introduced: System, Region, Area, and Substation. And, each spatial load can be decided proportional to its portion in the higher level. This paper introduces the horizon year loads to improve the forecasting results. And, this paper also introduces an effective load transfer algorithm to improve forecasting stability in case of new or stopped substations. The proposed model is applied to the load forecasting of KEPCO system composed of 16 regions, 85 areas and 761 substations, and the results are compared with those of econometrics model to verify its validity.

Keywords

References

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