응용통계연구 (The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics)

  • 제15권2호
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  • Pages.311-321
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  • 2002
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  • 1225-066X(pISSN)
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  • 2383-5818(eISSN)
한국통계학회 (The Korean Statistical Society)
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시계열 전이함수분석 이분산성의 비선형 모형화

Nonlinear approach to modeling heteroscedasticity in transfer function analysis

  • 발행 : 2002.09.01
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초록

시계열 자료의 전이함수분석에 있어서 조건부 이분산성을 도입하고 기존의 선형 이분산모형인 Engle(1982)의 ARCH 모형과 더불어 비선형 모형인 베타-ARCH 및 분계점-ARCH모형을 고려하였다. 모형적합절차를 간략히 소개하였으며 제안된 모형을 미국 나스닥지수와 국내 종합주가지수에 적용시켜본 결과 비선형 ARCH 모형이 우수함을 알 수 있었다.

Transfer function model(TFM) capturings conditional heteroscedastic pattern is introduced to analyze stochastic regression relationship between the two time series. Nonlinear ARCH concept is incorporated into the TFM via threshold ARCH and beta- ARCH models. Steps for statistical analysis of the proposed model are explained along the lines of the Box & Jenkins(1976, ch. 10). For illustration, dynamic analysis between KOSPI and NASDAQ is conducted from which it is seen that threshold ARCH performs the best.

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참고문헌

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