Decision Support System for Project Duration Estimation Model

프로젝트기간예측모델을 위한 의사결정지원시스템

  • Published : 2000.12.01

Abstract

Despite their wide application of some traditional project management techniques like the Program Evaluation and Review Technique, they lack of learning, one of important factors in many disciplines today, due to a static view for project progression. This study proposes a framework for estimation by loaming based on a Linear Bayesian approach. As a project Progresses, we sequentially observe the durations of completed activities. By reflecting this newly available information to update the distribution of remaining activity durations and thus project duration, we can implement a decision support system that updates e.g., the expected project completion time as well as the probabilities of completing the project within the due bate and by a certain date. By implementing such customized system, project manager can be aware of changing project status more effectively and better revise resource allocation plans.

Keywords

References

  1. International Journal of Project Management v.14 Professional Project Management: A Shift towards Learning and a Knowledge Creating Structure Ayas;Karen
  2. European Journal of Operational Research v.88 Project Management with Time, Cost, and Quality Considerations Babu, A.J.G.;N. Suresh
  3. Project Management Journal Incorporating Learning Curve Effects Into Critical Resource Diagramming Badiru;Adedeji B.
  4. Bcaver Creek Resort, Avon, Colorado v.15 no.5
  5. Operations Research v.45 Activity Delay in Stochastic Project Networks Buss, A.H.;M.J. Rosenblatt
  6. International Journal of Project Management A Review of Existing Models for Project Planning and Estimation and the Need for a New Approach Chatzogou, Prodromos D.;Macaulay, Linda A.
  7. Ph. D. Dissertation, George Washington University Sequential Estimation and Decision-Making in Project Management-A Bayesian Way and Heuristic Approach- Cho, Sungbin
  8. Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science Cooke, Roger M.
  9. Proceedings of the ASA section on Bayesian Statistical Science Bayesian Project Management Covaliu, Zvi;Refik Soyer
  10. Proceedings of the ASA section on Bayesian Statistical Science Bayesian Learning in Project Management Networks Covaliu, Zvi;Refik Soyer
  11. Management Science v.31 Approximating the Criticality Indices of the Activities in PERT Networks Dodin, B.M.;S.E. Elmaghraby
  12. European Journal of Operational Research v.49 The Scheduling of Activities to Maximize the Net Present Value of Projects Elmaghraby, S.E.;W.S. Herroelen
  13. European Journal of Operational Research v.64 PERT and crashing revisited: Mathematical Generalization Foldes, S.;F. Soumis
  14. Royal Statistical Society v.145 Assessment of a Prior Distribution for the Correlation Coefficient in a Bivariate Normal Distribution Gokhale, D.V.;S.J. Press
  15. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B. v.31 Linear Bayesian Methods Hartigan J.A.
  16. Report 535 PERT Belief Networks Jenzarli, Ali
  17. Project Management Meredith;Jack R.;Samuel J.;Mantel Jr.
  18. Project Management Journal Scheduling of Programs with Repetitive Project Shtub;Avraham
  19. Decision Sciences v.18 Using a Late-Start Resource-Constrained Project Schedule to Improve Project Net Present Value Smith-Daniels, D.E.;N.J. Aquilano
  20. Irwin Production/Operation Management Stevensons;William J.
  21. Project Management Journal Improving CPM's Accuracy Using Learning Curves Teplitz, Charles J.;Amor, Jean-Pierre
  22. International Journal of Production Economics v.58 Statistical Dependence in Risk Analysis for Project Networks using Monte Carlo methods van Dorp, J.R.;Duffey, Michael R.
  23. European Journal of Operational Research v.64 Scheduling a Project to Maximize its Net Present Value: An Inter Programming Approach Yang, K.K.;F.B. Talbot;J.H. Patterson